A few last election thoughts

The feeling of confidence in a "blue wave" that I'm seeing all over the left political internet is giving me really strong flashbacks to 2024.  Don't forget that polls can be wrong -- even far wrong.  Some of them were far wrong in 2024.  Some of them have been in this year's primaries.  The Democrats will probably win the House majority -- it would be astonishing if they didn't, under current circumstances -- and it's certainly possible they'll get a large majority and also win the Senate.  But remember, nothing is guaranteed.

I've already said what I consider to be the most important races to watch next week.  But in fact, the real significance of this election comes down to just the first two -- Osborn's Senate campaign in Nebraska and the billionaire wealth tax in California.  If they both lose, then even a big Democratic win will be just another ordinary alternation of power between the two big parties, such as have happened back-and-forth many times over the last few decades without any noticeable impact on the fundamental problem of growing concentration of wealth in the hands of a tiny parasitic oligarch class and deepening privation among the masses.  It would mean a wait of, at the least, two more years for the next chance at real change.

But if Osborn and the wealth tax both win, it will signal the start of a true break-out from the old pattern.  It will mean that large numbers of voters -- majorities in two very different states -- have at least begun to see through the surface conflict between the two parties (nearly meaningless now that they both are dominated by billionaire donors) to the deeper fundamental reality of the class struggle, and are starting to fight back against the oligarchy.  Sending a hard-core economic populist to the Senate, and directly taxing billionaire wealth in the largest and richest state in the country, will constitute acts of head-on popular resistance to the oligarchy's power, in a way that a mere transfer of offices in Washington from one billionaire-dominated party to the other never could.

Current polling is mixed.  In Nebraska, the most recent poll that Electoral-Vote found worthy of inclusion had Osborn leading 48% to 41%, but most other recent polls have shown it much closer.  The California wealth tax now seems to be headed for defeat, perhaps not surprising since the billionaires have spent nearly half a billion dollars on propaganda against it, as well as putting up their own scam initiatives (41 and 42) which, if successful, would negate the wealth tax even if it passes.  But polls are not elections.  Either one of these races could still go either way.

But whatever happens, I still take heart from the ongoing and vigorous grassroots campaign against data centers -- itself a determined pushback against the efforts of obscenely-wealthy tech-bro corporate oligarchs to further enrich themselves at the expense of the quality of life of communities across the country, even if it's not explicitly expressed in class-struggle terms much of the time.  This campaign has brought together ordinary people of widely varying political orientations, and the political parties had nothing to do with it -- the rise of the issue took them totally by surprise, and politicians have only reluctantly and grudgingly gotten on board with it since it goes against the interests of their billionaire donors.  It's true populist activism, pushing the parties and politicians rather than following them.

This is not to say that nothing else matters.  It's important to restore and protect abortion rights in those states that will be voting on that issue -- this is a fundamental personal freedom.  It's important to keep El-Sayed and Paxton out of the Senate.  If Texas elects a Democratic governor and/or senator, it would be a clear signal to the Republican party that the path they're on is a dead end and they need to change, as well as breaking the mold of that state's ossified, stagnant one-party politics.  Democratic control of Congress would create a chance to rein in some of Trump's abuses.  All these things, and others, do matter.  But our country's most fundamental problems can be solved only by a vigorous, powerful economic-populist movement.  That's why it's Osborn and the wealth tax that are the true potential game-changers next week.