NOAA 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook

The updated 2026 North Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook is an official product of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center (CPC). The outlook is produced in collaboration with hurricane experts from NOAA’s National Hurricane Center (NHC) and Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory (AOML). The Atlantic hurricane region includes the North Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea, and Gulf of America.

Interpretation of NOAA's Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook:
This outlook is a general guide to the expected overall activity during the ongoing hurricane season. It is not a seasonal hurricane landfall forecast, and it does not predict levels of activity for any particular location. And note that years with similar activity can have different societal impacts.

Preparedness:
Hurricane-related disasters can occur during any season, even for years with low overall activity. It only takes one hurricane (or tropical storm) to cause a disaster. It is crucial that residents, businesses, and government agencies of coastal and near-coastal regions prepare for every hurricane season regardless of this, or any other, seasonal outlook. The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) through Ready.gov (English) and Listo.gov (Spanish), the NHC, the Small Business Administration, and the American Red Cross all provide important hurricane preparedness information on their web sites.

NOAA does not make seasonal hurricane landfall predictions:
NOAA does not make seasonal hurricane landfall predictions. Hurricane landfalls are largely determined by the weather patterns in place as the hurricane approaches, and those patterns are usually only predictable when the storm is within several days of making landfall.

Nature of this outlook and the "likely" ranges of activity:
This outlook is probabilistic, meaning the stated “likely” ranges of activity have a certain likelihood of occurring. The seasonal activity is expected to fall within these ranges in 7 out of 10 seasons with similar conditions and uncertainties to those expected this year. They do not represent the total possible ranges of activity seen in past similar years. Also, even years with similar levels of activity can have dramatically different societal impacts

This outlook is based on analyses of 1) predictions of large-scale factors known to influence seasonal hurricane activity, and 2) seasonal forecast models that directly predict seasonal hurricane activity. The outlook also considers the uncertainties inherent in such outlooks.

Sources of uncertainty in the seasonal outlooks:

1. Predicting the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phases, which include El Niño and La Niña events and ENSO-neutral and their impacts on North Atlantic basin hurricane activity, is an ongoing scientific challenge facing scientists today.
2. Many combinations of named storms (tropical and subtropical storms), hurricanes, and major hurricanes can occur for the same general set of conditions. For example, one cannot know with certainty whether a given signal may be associated with many shorter-lived storms or fewer longer-lived storms with greater intensity.
3. There are uncertainties associated with the model predictions of various factors known to influence seasonal hurricane activity in the Atlantic region, such as sea surface temperatures (SSTs), the vertical wind shear of the horizontal wind, moisture, and atmospheric stability for August-October (ASO), the peak months of the hurricane season.
4. Shorter-term weather patterns that are unpredictable on seasonal time scales can develop and persist for weeks or months, affecting seasonal hurricane activity.

2026 North Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook Summary

a. Predicted Activity

NOAA's updated outlook for the 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season indicates that a below-normal season is the most likely outcome, with low chances for a near-normal season, and a very small chance that the season would be above-normal. The outlook calls for a 75% chance for a below-normal season, a 20% chance of a near-normal season, and a nominal 5% chance for an above-normal season. See NOAA's definitions of above-, near-, and below-normal seasons for more information.

The 2026 outlook calls for a 70% probability for each of the following ranges of activity:

• 7-13 Named Storms, including the 2 named storms recorded thus far
• 2-6 Hurricanes
• 0-2 Major Hurricanes
• Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) range of 30-90% of the median, including the 3% recorded thus far.

The seasonal activity is expected to fall within these ranges in 70% of seasons with similar conditions to those expected this year. These ranges do not represent the total possible ranges of activity seen in past similar years with similar conditions. The ranges predicted in this update are centered below the 1991-2020 seasonal averages of 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes, and these ranges are slightly lower than those in the May outlook (8-14 named storms, 3-6 hurricanes, 1-3 major hurricanes, and 45-115% of median ACE).

Most of the predicted activity is likely to occur during August-September-October (ASO), the peak months of the hurricane season. The North Atlantic hurricane season officially runs from June 1st through November 30th.

b. Outlook Reasoning

• The most recent forecast from the NOAA Climate Prediction Center indicates El Niño conditions are expected to continue and increase in strength through the hurricane season, including during the peak months, ASO. The official NOAA ENSO forecast from July indicates a 90% chance of a strong or very strong El Niño during ASO, mapping to a relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI) of greater than or equal to 1.5°C and more specifically, 48% chance of a very strong El Niño (RONI being ≥ 2.0°C). During the current high-activity era, an El Niño event is typically associated with near to below-average levels of hurricane activity. All hurricanes seasons coincident with strong (greater than or equal to 1.5°C Nino3.4) El Niño events since 1950 have featured below-normal seasonal activity.


• The set of conditions that have produced the ongoing high-activity era for Atlantic hurricanes which began in 1995 are likely to continue in 2026, though the conducive atmospheric component appears likely to be disrupted by the ongoing El Niño event. These high-activity era conditions include warmer sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) in various areas of the North Atlantic and weaker trade winds in the Atlantic hurricane Main Development Region (MDR), along with weaker vertical wind shear, and a conducive West African Monsoon. The oceanic component of these conditions is often referred to as the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), while the ocean/atmosphere combined system is sometimes referred to as Atlantic Multidecadal Variability (AMV). The MDR (approximately 10°N-20°N, 20°W-85°W) spans the tropical North Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea. While currently observed SSTs in the MDR are similar to those normally observed at the end of August, the warmth of the MDR is well below the tropical mean and trade winds are stronger than normal across portions of the MDR. The upper-level circulation within the West African Monsoon is near average, though monsoon rainfall is predicted to be shifted northward (which is less conducive for tropical cyclone development) and be potentially above-average for the entire season, but displaced inland from the western coast of Africa.

DISCUSSION

NOAA’s updated outlook for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season indicates that a below-normal season is most likely (75% chance). The outlook also includes only a 20% chance of a near-normal season, and a nominal 5% chance of an above-normal season. The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season is predicted to produce (with 70% probability for each range) 7-13 named storms (which includes the 2 named storms recorded thus far), of which 2-6 are expected to become hurricanes, and up to 2 of those are forecast to become major hurricanes. These ranges are centered below the 1991-2020 period averages of about 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes.

The 2026 outlook for Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index indicates a 70% chance that the seasonal ACE range will be 30-90% of the median (which includes the 3% recorded thus far). According to NOAA’s hurricane season classifications, an ACE value between 75.4% and 130% of the 1951-2020 median indicates a near-normal season. Values above (below) this range are associated with an above-normal (below-normal) season. The 2026 predicted ACE range is centered below the cutoff between below-normal and near-normal, and the upper end of the range falls in the near-normal category. ACE is a measure of both the intensity and duration of named storms, computed by squaring the wind speed at each 6-hour interval, then summing those squared values over the season.

If the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season ends up being below-normal, it would mark only the second season in the last decade without above-normal activity. The last season with below-normal activity was 2015 and 2022 was near-normal. Since the current Atlantic high-activity era began in 1995, 22 of 31 (71%) seasons have had above-normal activity, and only 5 (16%) and 4 (13%) have had near- and below-normal activity, respectively, based on the 1951-2020 climatology.

Predictions of the location, number, timing, and intensity of hurricane landfalls are ultimately related to the daily weather patterns which determine storm genesis locations and steering patterns. These steering patterns are not predictable weeks or months in advance. As a result, it is currently not possible to accurately predict the number or intensity of landfalling hurricanes at these extended ranges, or whether a given locality will be impacted by a tropical storm or hurricane this season.

2. Science behind the Outlook

NOAA’s North Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlooks are based on predictions of the main atmospheric and oceanic factors, and their associated conditions known to influence seasonal Atlantic hurricane activity. These predictions are based on extensive monitoring, analysis, research activities, a suite of statistical prediction tools, and dynamical models. The dynamical model predictions come from the NOAA Climate Forecast System (CFS), NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Lab (GFDL) HiFLOR-S and SPEAR-MED models, the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME), the United Kingdom Met Office (UKMET) GloSea6 model, and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) Seas5 model. ENSO forecasts are also provided from the NMME dynamical models and NOAA's Unified Forecast System Seasonal Forecast System (UFS-SFS), which are compiled by NOAA’s CPC.

NOAA’s 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook reflects the expectation of the following, competing atmospheric and oceanic factors during ASO:

1. El Niño is expected to continue and strengthen throughout the remainder of the hurricane season, with a 90% chance of it developing into a strong or very strong event. Strong or very strong events are defined by Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI) value ≥ 1.5°C. Moderate or stronger El Niño conditions generally lead to less hurricane activity in the Atlantic Basin and every strong event in recent history has been associated with below-average seasonal hurricane activity even during this high-activity era (e.g., 1997 and 2015).


2. Ongoing high-activity era conditions such as warmer Atlantic SSTs but likely with El Niño cancelling much of the conducive trade wind and vertical wind shear reductions.


3. A neutral West African monsoon, but with high precipitation shifted northward and inland, a configuration that is not optimal for tropical cyclone development.

1. El Niño in place
   
   The weekly relative SSTs are currently well above average across much of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific and the relative SST index for the Niño 3.4 region is +1.4°C. The Niño 3.4 index has shown a substantial warming trend since January 2026. The wind and outgoing longwave radiation patterns over the equatorial Pacific are also reflecting the shift to El Niño.
   
   Looking forward, model-predicted SST anomalies in the Niño 3.4 region indicate a certainty of El Niño conditions continuing throughout the remainder of the hurricane season. The dynamical model average indicates a strong or very strong El Niño at least through autumn of 2026. Some of the dynamical model individual members indicate a record-breaking El Niño event with large areas of greater than 2.5°C SST anomalies in the tropical Pacific.
   
   NOAA’s ENSO Diagnostic Discussion from July of 2026 indicates a 100% chance that El Niño conditions continue during the peak months (ASO) and remainder of the season. The current hurricane season outlook reflects the observations that show that the El Niño conditions are already interfering with the ongoing set of conditions associated with the current high-activity era for Atlantic hurricanes (discussed below) and the expectations that these conditions will continue and even increase – thus further suppressing much of tropical development. If the El Niño does not have typical downstream circulation impacts quite as amplified as the current forecast indicates, then the season could end up with activity close to the upper-ends of the forecast ranges, especially if we get one long-lived major hurricane (like Betsy of 1965). If the El Niño becomes very strong in summer, and/or other conditions local to the Atlantic also become unsupportive of development, then the seasonal activity could be closer to the lower end of the forecast ranges.
   
   Seasonal activity in strong or very strong El Niño events during ASO have historically yielded Atlantic seasons with ranges of 6-11 named storms, 2-4 hurricanes, and 0-2 major hurricanes. ACE during these events has ranged from 33-89% of median. Only one strong or very strong El Niño event during ASO has resulted in a near-normal Atlantic Hurricane season (1965, due to long-lived hurricane Betsy), with all of the other seasons being below-normal. Given the anticipated deficiencies of other conditions favorable for hurricanes in the Atlantic, the outlook predicts a high probability of low levels of activity in line with historical norms.
   
   


2. Predicted conditions within the MDR
   SSTs are currently above-average across the MDR with an area-averaged anomaly during June of +0.17°C, which is slightly warmer than the value in June of 2025 (+0.11) but much lower than the +1.21°C and +1.20°C values during 2023 and 2024, respectively. Both the CFS and NMME models predict slightly above-average SSTs during ASO across much of the MDR, though there are still predicted pockets of near-normal and even below-normal SSTs. Among the subset of the NMME models used in the hybrid outlook, the predicted values of MDR SST anomalies during ASO range from -0.03°C to +0.31°C, with the multi-model ensemble spatial average being +0.23°C. The range of values is narrower than last year, and the average is slightly lower than 2025. Although minor SST warmth across the MDR might typically encourage storm development, the exceptionally warm temperatures currently observed across the global tropics likely render this factor neutral. Consequently, these conditions may actually serve as a minor suppressive influence on seasonal activity. The current model predictions are consistent with the ongoing warm phase of the AMV.
   
   Two inter-related atmospheric features, also related to the warm phase of the AMO/AMV are anomalous winds at mid-levels (850-hPa, 700-hPa, and 600-hPa) across the central and eastern tropical Atlantic and the strength of the West African monsoon system. The 850-hPa winds are already higher than normal across the Caribbean. The outflow from the West African monsoon, as analyzed by 200-hPa velocity potential anomaly and divergent wind, is showing a reduced vertical circulation. That signal has varied significantly, though variance in that signal before the core of the West African monsoon season (July to September) is common. The axis of heaviest rain and position of the resultant African easterly jet is forecast to be near average, which would result in neutral forcing for tropical storm and hurricane activity in the Atlantic and would not meaningfully compete with the El Niño influences which suppress hurricane activity. Should the eastern part of the monsoon be displaced northward while the western portion stays near average or even southward as it was in early July, waves moving off of Africa could entrain dry air before they exit the continent, also making development less likely.
   
   The NOAA CFS and NMME models also predict above-normal vertical wind shear over the MDR during ASO. This is likely associated with the model predictions of a strong or very strong El Niño that could overwhelm any locally favorable condition (e.g. warmer Atlantic basin sea-surface temperatures and weak trade winds).


3. Factors contributing to uncertainty
   Uncertainties in the 2026 outlook are rooted in a few factors. El Niño conditions and some of the downstream impacts over the Atlantic are already in place, but how much these downstream impacts will increase during ASO less certain. The potential for a very strong, and possibly a record breaking, El Niño event could result in the circulation having impacts we have never observed, as a such a strong event could have different impacts than those traditionally observed as opposed to similar impacts with greater intensity.
   
   Additionally, during El Niño years, tropical storm and hurricane activity in the Atlantic is generally shifted toward the Gulf Coast and subtropical regions due to the relative hostility to formation in the MDR. The subtropical warmth in the Atlantic could increase that relative signal. One or more, long-lived or intense hurricanes in the subtropics could result in activity toward the upper end of the forecast ranges. Additionally, subtropical storms and tropical storms/hurricanes developing in the subtropics carry additional risks for the public and the maritime industry.

• Matt Rosencrans, Physical Scientist; Matthew.Rosencrans{at}noaa.gov
• Dr. Hui Wang, Meteorologist; Hui.Wang{at}noaa.gov
• Dr. Daniel Harnos, Meteorologist; Daniel.Harnos{at}noaa.gov
• Lindsey Long, Meteorologist; Lindsey.Long{at}noaa.gov
• Nicholas Novella, Meteorologist; Nicholas.Novella{at}noaa.gov

• Eric Blake, Senior Hurricane Specialist; Eric.S.Blake{at}noaa.gov
• Dr. Richard Pasch, Senior Hurricane Specialist; Richard.J.Pasch{at}noaa.gov

• Stanley Goldenberg, Meteorologist; Stanley.Goldenberg{at}noaa.gov
• Dr. Hosmay Lopez, Oceanographer; Hosmay.Lopez{at}noaa.gov