Let's Just Say It

As fighting continues to rage in all parts of Syria, someone needs to just say the obvious. The West screwed up this diplomatic, political and military challenge beyond repair.

The Western world; specifically the US, the EU and Israel, misjudged the situation - then reacted inappropriately. Now, we're left hoping that when Assad goes down, he and his troops take out as many of the Al-Nusrati and other Salafis as possible in the process. What an incredible mess, and so poorly handled.

The dictatorial Baathist Party rule of Bashar al-Assad and his father Hafez al-Assad before him was autocratic to be sure. And brutal on occasion, as the ruling party ruthlessly put-down any attempt at political change. As it turn out, the Party utilized its dictatorial powers to not only reward family, tribe and loyalty; but to ensure a non-sectarian and fundamentalist-free state. The benefits of that arrangement were many, including the free practice of religion for Syrian Druze, Christians, Sunni & Shiite Muslims. Cultural minorities like the Kurds were given more freedoms in Syria than in many of their host countries. And women were particularly advantaged, in that the regime actively promoted equal rights and acceptance of women in all aspects of life. Syria boasts women pilots, lawyers, doctors and professors - unlike many other Arab countries where the role of women is often restricted by cultural practice or religious mandate.  In Assad's Syria, women could dress in whatever manner they chose; they could aspire to any job; and, many were very successful in society. That will not be the case in a Salafi-controlled country.

The problem has been a profound US and European misunderstanding of the players, the cultures, and the religious sects involved in the Levant and across North Africa. This inexplicable lapse has lead to serious misjudgements and missteps. It is time for this kind of poorly informed and executed foreign policy to be more thoroughly scrutinized and for those responsible to be held accountable for the unfortunate outcomes we're now facing.

Last of the Sunni Generals Abandons Assad

SYRIA UPDATE:  The NY Times reports today (26/12/12) that one of Syria's last remaining Sunni generals has now abandoned the Assad regime and publicly declared his defection. Another blow to the embattled regime.

At the same time, it appears that Assad's "inner circle," those with real influence over his decision-making has turned very hard-line, and is now excluding voices calling for negotiations with the factions.

In the face of these developments, UN "Special Envoy" Lakhdar Brahimi has returned to Damascus with new proposals designed to end the conflict and provide Assad with an exit scenario he will accept. It is clear that none of the major players has any hope at all that his efforts will yield positive results. But these matters are fluid, if nothing else. Last-minute surprises should not be ruled out.

To date, authoritative observers are recording 45,000 deaths since the conflict began in March, 2011. That number includes about 12,000 fighters, and over 30,000 civilian deaths.

Syria Unravels - How Long Will It Take?

Every day the Syrian civil war continues, the stories of death and destruction; of intractable conflict; of airborne attacks and SCUD missiles continue. That's right, NATO has confirmed that the Syrian regime is firing SCUDs against its own people.

And now, the Western World, and Syria's close neighbors, are concerned about the possibility of a chemical weapons attack. To wit, President Obama promptly issued a specific statement warning Syria of the consequences. With good reason. The Assad regime seems determined to cling to power at all costs, convinced that any "deal" or "retreat" will lead to their ultimate demise.  Again, with good reason.

Even the UN now recognizes that the conflict has become sectarian, part of the larger regional struggle between Shia and Sunni; between modernism and fundamentalism. Entire tribes, villages and provinces are locked in an increasingly bitter struggle. Ethnic cleansing and fratricidal war crimes are abundant on both sides. And as in most cases of civil war, it is the civilian population; often the elderly, women and children who are paying the highest price.

Of particular concern is the fact that the Free Syrian Army (FSA) shows signs of being co-opted by Salafi jihadists, the worst of all possible worlds. Americans will know Salafis as the predominant sect of the 9/11 bombers; an companion religious philosophy to the Wahabi school that produced Osama bin Laden. The Wahabi school of fundamentalists controls religious life in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, where most of the 9/11 crew called home.

One can see evidence of Salafi influence in Syria in the patrols of religious police now being deployed in some rural areas of the country under FSA control.

It is important to remember that under Assad, Syria was a non-sectarian, Baathist government that though dictatorial practiced tolerance and modernism. That is to say that minorities like the Syrian Christians, Druze, and Kurds all lived in harmony and were permitted free practice of their religious rites. Women in Syria were pilots, lawyers, and they had no dress restrictions to speak of under the Assad regime. That's because it was scrupulously non-sectarian, non religious. That will soon change. And probably not for the better. 

At the end of the day, a vast majority of the Syrian population are Sunni Muslims. But some, like the Kurds, are more driven by ethnic/cultural identity concerns than by religion. Syria also has a minority population of Turkomen, some Shia and others Sunni. It is important to note that in any democratic election, the presumption is that Sunni-backed parties would capture a majority of votes in many areas. As we've seen in Egypt, when popular vote is instituted Arab countries sometimes veer to the fundamentalist right.

The conflict does appear to be turning in favor of the majority Sunni fighters who now control vast areas of the countryside and suburbs of the country's biggest cities, including Aleppo and Damascus. Several Syrian military bases and academies have been overrun in recent weeks, and the rebels have commandeered heavy weapons from those victories. Now, they have shoulder-launched anti-aircraft rockets and tanks in their arsenals. So naturally, they've been warning of the imminent collapse of the capital. But not all see it that way, with a number of regional experts predicting a long, bloody and drawn-out end-game to the war. Remember, in neighboring Lebanon the civil war went on for fifteen years - until the combatants got tired of the fight and the destruction and agreed a coalition government.

Is that what we have to look forward to in Syria?  And will history record that the West picked the right and most strategic side in this fight?  What role does our relationship with Israel and our dispute with Iran factor in to our Syrian strategy?  These are pressing questions that require answers. This blog will be addressing these issues as events unfold.

UPDATE:  The NY Times ran this analysis today; reporting on Assad's current choices and influences.

Top Iraqi Cleric Rules Out Conflict With Kurds

The potential for conflict between Arab & Kurd in northern Iraq has been off-the-charts in the last few weeks. Kurdish Peshmerga fighters faced-off across very little territory from the federal Iraqi army, and both generals issued bellicose statements. Sabres were rattled, and tension have risen as a consequence.

Just recently, a senior Iraqi Shiite cleric was interviewed on the issue - and he took the opportunity to not only dismiss the possibility of conflict, but to also predict the end of prime minister Al-Maliki. Pretty good stuff here.  I know I'm a lot less worried about that particular scenario after reading the interview.

Update: today, a more formal effort to reduce tensions was agreed by both parties. After the interview noted above, it comes as no surprise.

Breakthrough?

If the Turks will talk to Abdullah Ocalan, anything is possible. Today's Zaman, the country's leading daily newspaper (associated with the party in power), seems to think that might be happening soon. This is an amazing development - given the intractable nature of Turkey's "Kurdish problem." It speaks to the change that can be wrought out of regional turmoil. Because surely this would not have happened if Turkey's neighbors were all stable, peaceful and conducting business as usual.

But, of course, that's not the case. Syria is melting down, and the Assad regime may fall in days if not in hours. Syrian Kurds, the largest ethnic minority in the country, have moved assertively to secure and govern villages in the North that are under their control. But there are some who believe that this situation, though necessary for the local population to protect their families and their land, may inevitably lead to regional war.

In Iraq, the region of Kurdistan has recently flexed its muscle in a standoff with the Shiite leadership in Baghdad. Iraqi Kurdistan is the most stable, developed and prosperous province in the country - a real shining example of Kurdish leadership that is not lost on Kurds in neighboring nations.

In Turkey, where there are millions of Kurds in the South, the Kurdish conflict has been well understood for generations. Kurds make up 18% of Turkey's population; and for years, Kurds in Turkey were not allowed to speak their own language; to participate in cultural and folk festivals, or to open their own schools. Though much of that has changed in recent years, the ongoing insurrection by the militant PKK is a central focus of the central government in Ankara. That's what makes this development so interesting, and potentially important.

You see, Ocalan is a founding member of the PKK - and the author of over 40 books. A real Kurdish oracle. But even that fails to adequately describe his importance. Adding another layer of intrigue, Ocalan was sheltering in Syria when the Turkish government forced his Syrian hosts to evict him in early 1998. The author will be watching developments over the next few days and weeks with interest. This is a time of upheaval, change and re-alignments. All things are possible.

Afghanistan Unravels

And so it begins. The unraveling of US and NATO involvement in Afghanistan. And it's going to be a very messy affair, from all indications. The Afghan war is now the longest active conflict in American history.

The war, started by George Bush in response to the 9/11 terrorist attacks, was undertaken to take out the Taliban. The Islamist, Pashtun group was running almost all of the country at the time. The conflict has dragged on for well over ten years; killed all too many US and NATO troops; cost the United States and Europe a fortune; and, now it's time to end it and withdraw. There is simply no public support or political will for continuing the fight. The generals assure us they have a plan. That's a story we've heard before.

I'm reminded of the desperate "Vietnamization" program that was supposed to get us out of the Vietnam war with dignity - and in the process turn the role of defense and the maintenance of order and authority to the Army of the Republic of Vietnam (ARVN). For those who weren't around at the time - it didn't work out as planned. The last US troops, along with a cast local Vietnamese supporters, crowded onto helicopters on top of the US Embassy while the victorious North Vietnamese Army (NVA) and the Viet Cong marched down the main street of Saigon and occupied the capital city.

There is simply no reason to expect our exit from Afghanistan to be any different. The similarities are stunning, and very disconcerting. Of special concern, the following developments:

The re-arming of powerful militias, like the Ismaelis of Herat, ahead of the turnover.
The Taliban offensive against the largely Shiite Hazaras in Hazarajat.
The European Union has decided to suspend aid, due to rampant corruption.
The massacre trial of a US serviceman accused of a murderous rampage.
The involvement of Gen. John Allen, our in-country commander, in the Patreus scandal.

Veterans Day - Armistice Day

Today in the United States, we celebrate Veterans Day. A day to recognize the contributions of those who serve and have served in the US armed forces. Flags fly at half-staff, somber parades are conducted, and taps is sounded across Veterans' cemeteries nationwide. We are a country, young as we are, that understands war and the losses it always involves.

It is for that reason on this day of remembrance, that I direct your attention to the cautionary and prescient remarks of former five-star general and US president Dwight Eisenhower in his farewell address from the White House. A quick reminder that it was Eisenhower who won the second world war and was the most admired man in America at the time. As he left the office of the presidency, he said:

“In the councils of government, we must guard against the acquisition of unwarranted influence, whether sought or unsought, by the military-industrial complex. The potential for the disastrous rise of misplaced power exists, and will persist.  We must never let the weight of this combination endanger our liberties or democratic processes. We should take nothing for granted. Only an alert and knowledgeable citizenry can compel the proper meshing of the huge industrial and military machinery of defense with our peaceful methods and goals so that security and liberty may prosper together.”

Israel Sends Stong Message to Iran

In case you missed it, a major Sudanese weapons facility was partially destroyed by profound explosions last week. Sudan immediately blamed Israel for a targeted bombing strike on its sovereign territory. Israel, as is its practice in these cases, neither confirmed nor denied the charge. Read the details here.

Make no mistake about it. Israel was definitely responsible for this attack, and it was intended by IDF strategists to be a clear message not to Sudan, but to Iran. The message being: "See what we can do to you if you don't comply with our desires." It is no coincidence that the distance and logistics involved in the Sudan operation, as yet unnamed, is almost identical to the metrics involved in an attack on Iranian nuclear facilities. What we're seeing is more of a tentative dance than a conversation --  fraught with danger for all involved. 

From a strictly strategic and disaffected point-of-view, the process of applying pressure on the Iranian Mullahs is nothing short of genius - and strikingly successful. Whether it is ethical or moral in this age is another matter - and is the subject of debate. But the results are evident, and they're compelling.  To wit: several Iranian nuclear scientists (example, example, example) have been summarily assassinated in Tehran itself; the supply of equipment and technology to the Islamic Republic has been severely curtailed; the country's nuclear facilities have been infected by highly targeted and sophisticated computer viruses, cooperatively developed by outside states at the highest level; and just lately, the currency has been destroyed - rendering the country unable to finance its ventures as well as to underwrite its domestic programs. Scroll-down and see my last post for a more detailed look at that.

Just consider the totality of all I've described, and the spiraling ramifications that continue to plague Iran as I write. It's almost diabolically effective. Trouble is, it may not work. Or worse, as is always the case, it may backfire and unify support for the government and programs we seek to undermine.

And now, Israel sends the ultimate message - with prejudice. Sure, bombing the Sudanese weapons facility will likely also cut the arms supply to Hamas in the Gaza Strip, but the real message was intended for Iran. 

UPDATE: 30.10.2012 Iran responds by sending warships & senior naval commanders to Port Sudan.

Iran's Currency Collapses - War Averted

The Rial has collapsed, it's official. Iran's currency is in free-fall as I write. Ordinary Iranians are fleeing the Rial for dollars and exacerbating an already hysterical situation. And Barak Obama is smiling. His policy of aggressive sanctions - short of war - has worked and his foreign policy vindicated vis-a-vis Iran.

President Obama, backed by his formidable secretary of state Hillary Clinton, has been slowly turning the screws on Iran for his entire administration. He's had to do so under difficult circumstances, and under profound scrutiny from all sides. His detractors should be silenced for a while now. His policies and actions worked, and even Israel recognizes this success and has now backed off its threat of immediate attack.

The angry, bellicose rhetoric of Bibi Netanyahu has been revealed for what it is. Utter, sabre-rattling nonsense. Good work, Bibi. Way to gain cred in the International community.

Finally, it appears the the United States may have the one thing it has really needed in the past couple of decades: a president ready and willing to stand up against Israel's hysterical demands and belligerent posturing (while committing war crimes in Lebanon and Gaza, mind you).

Unbearable Irony at the UN

The specter of Israeli prime minister Benyamin Netanyahu standing at the podium addressing the UN General Assembly regarding the dangers of an Iranian nuclear bomb is so ironic and hypocritical as to make one's skin crawl and eyes roll. This is the same Netanyahu that, in an earlier age, arranged for nuclear triggers stolen from the US Navy to be delivered to Israeli intelligence.

 It is important to remember that Israel has it's own, renegade nuclear program that has now produced, by most reliable reports, over 200 nuclear weapons. This program was secretive, denied for years by lying, Israeli politicians. Tens, perhaps hundreds, of concerned UN resolutions regarding the matter were summarily ignored - as Israel pressed forward in the face of International condemnation. And, Israel has NEVER signed the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty - even though it has been urged to do so by countless US administrations and leaders worldwide.

What that means is that Israel has never allowed international inspection of its nuclear facilities. That's precisely what's been going on in Iran for some time now, and so the irony is magnified. Perhaps it's time to re-visit the secret agreement made between then president Richard Nixon and then Israeli PM Golda Meir to keep Israel's nuclear capacity a secret.

 It is also important to remember another country with nuclear weapons potential, built with Israeli technology, that chose to go another way... to take another, more honorable path. South Africa had a bomb, during its Apartheid years when it was governed by an elite minority that feigned democracy while keeping the majority native population in chains. Sound familiar? Kind of like what the Israeli's have been doing with the Palestinians? But in the case of South Africa, the country voluntarily gave up its nuclear weapons program in response to international concern and condemnation. Not the Israelis. So please pardon me if I observe that on this issue, and a host of others like settlements and Jerusalem, Bibi Netanyahu simply cannot be trusted. He's always been a liar and a thief, and he remains one.

Are Russia & Turkey Headed for a Showdown?

As the Middle East heats up yet again, and our attention is focused on Syria, Egypt and the wave of anti-American sentiment boiling up throughout the Muslim world, the specter of another potential conflict is going unnoticed.

The Caucasus are seething with ethnic, religious and sectarian tensions that may ignite the region, pitting Russia against a resurgent Turkey in a conflict that could encompass Iran and Syria. The region is especially volatile at the moment due to the Syrian civil war; overt Israeli threats to attack Iran; and massive war games being conducted by opposing forces.

 A potential burning fuse, largely overlooked in the Western press, is the simmering conflict between neighboring Armenia and Azerbaijan. The two countries; one largely Christian, the other largely Muslim, fought a bitter and costly war in the early 1990's. 30,000 people died and over one million were displaced during that conflict, over the region known as Nagorno Karabakh. The Armenian side won that round, and remains in control of the disputed region within the borders of Azerbaijan. An uncomfortable peace has ensued since the conclusion of the conflict in 1994.

 A murder in Hungary, a recent extradition to Azerbaijan; followed by a presidential pardon, has now re-kindled passions on both sides. Uh-huh. It's that kind of story. For the long-and-short of it, read this fine analysis in the Seattle Times. It should be noted that in the period since the war, Azerbaijan has pumped billions of petro-dollars into a massively upgraded military. Bottom line: If Armenia and Azerbaijan begin another war, Russia is obliged by treaty to support and defend it's ally Armenia. Turkey, on the other hand, is obliged by treaty to support and defend Azerbaijan. You can see where this is going.

But it gets better yet. Russia, along with China, have been staunch supporters of both the Iranian and Syrian regimes. Iranian proxies in the region are many, and include the likes of Hezbollah in Lebanon. Hezbollah is armed with rockets and a disciplined, highly trained and battle-hardened fighting force. So just imagine the potential face-off:  Western powers, Israel, Turkey, Azerbaijan and the Sunni Arab states on one side; Russia, Armenia, Iran, Syria and; Hezbollah on the other. With China on the sidelines cheering for the Russian axis. It's not a pretty picture. Alarmingly biblical from my point-of-view. Especially given the atmosphere of highly-charged religion that is permeating the entire conflict.

Have Washington strategists even considered this scenario? It does appear we're being dragged, kicking-and-screaming, into the Israeli/Iranian conflict - which could easily serves as the other burning fuse. I'm not satisfied we have a credible strategy in place to deal with these potential scenarios. To date, our response has been to pack the region with military assets - along with our allies. Looks to me like there's at least a possibility that we're being lured into an ambush that will make the current riots on the street look like child's play.

From Prof. Juan Cole's "Informed Comment" blog. Re-posted with attribution:

Dear Mitt Romney:

Your so-called Medicare reform is just a way of shifting health expenses from millionaires (whose taxes you want to lower) to middle class and working people (with whom you want to stick the bill). A 48-year-old today, who starts getting Medicare in 2030, would have to pay an extra $124,600 under your plan! Meanwhile, your running mate’s tax plan would reduce your own income taxes, as a multimillionaire, to less than one percent a year. You don’t get to say that!

You and your running mate are blaming Barack Obama for high gasoline prices. But you demand a stricter blockade on Iranian petroleum! Given that the present blockade has taken perhaps a million barrels a day off the market at a time of increasing demand in Asia, you don’t get to slam President Obama for causing high gasoline prices. Prices, as your MBA courses might have informed you, Mr. Romney, are based on supply and demand. If you reduce Iran supply, and demand stays the same or rises, then prices will go up. Since you want to tighten the blockade, you don’t get to say that!

After campaigning for months on repealing Obamacare, you suddenly say you want to keep “parts” of it, including preventing insurance companies from declining to cover people for pre-existing conditions. The way Obamacare allows that provision, however, is to make all the healthy young people get insurance or face a fine, thus increasing the pool size so as to allow those with known health conditions to also join the pool without bankrupting the companies. I mean, this is flip-flopping on an epic scale. First you invented Obamacare in Massachusetts, then you repudiated it as a national program, now you are embracing the key “parts” of it while pledging to repeal it! You don’t get to say that!

You defend yourself for not mentioning the Afghanistan War, in which US troops are fighting and dying, in your acceptance speech, bysaying that people should focus on policies, not on words. But, you didn’t mention Afghanistan policy, either. What is your position on the US branding the Haqqani Network a terrorist organization? How will that affect US-Pakistan relations, given that we think the Pakistani Inter-Services Intelligence has links to the Haqqanis? What about the the US halt to training Afghanistan policemen because so many turned out to be … Taliban? But training up local security forces is the pathway the US has announced to exit from Afghanistan. Where do you stand on this policy, since you like policy? In fact you haven’t told us what your foreign policy will be on almost any issue, except that you have managed for no good reason to anger Russia by branding it our number one enemy? I mean, I know Mormons don’t like Vodka, but still… You don’t get to say that!

Your running mate Paul Ryan all of a sudden says states should have the right to legalize marijuana for medical purposes and not be bothered by the Feds. But you’ve been campaigning for years on a ‘war on drugs’ platform. As with ‘parts of Obamacare,’ your campaign is now speaking out of both sides of its mouth to muddy the waters and perhaps attract some votes. You don’t get to say that!

Source:  http://www.juancole.com/2012/09/dear-mittl-you-dont-get-to-say-that.html?

Peres Shoots Down Netanyahu & Barak - For Now

Back to the Israel vs. Iran scenario that I've been posting about. See my previous post here. I'm concerned that the right-wing govt. in Israel, supported by US Jewish billionaire Sheldon Adelson and the American Israeli Political Action Committee (AIPAC), is attempting to pressure the US and Obama into a war with Iran. Now, Israeli elder-statesman and president Shim'on Peres has shot down the belligerent Prime Minister, Bibi Netanyahu. This quote translated from a column in Yedi'ot Aharonot, a respected Israeli daily newspaper, appeared in Juan Cole's "Informed Comment" blog. 

“Netanyahu and Baraq managed to make Peres lose his cool. Their conduct, the briefings they gave to the media on a possible strike in Iran, and particularly the belligerent attitude toward US President Barack Obama, upset him. Peres believes that Netanyahu and Baraq are liable to lead the country to a horrific reality on the day after a strike, which in any case — even in their view — will only postpone the moment at which Iran will acquire nuclear weapons by a year or 18 months. For this reason, he decided to make a presidential statement yesterday, and warn against the possibility of an Israeli strike without coordination and understandings with the United States. It seemed as if he were trying to hint that such course of action was too serious and crucial to be decided by these two fellows, Netanyahu and Baraq. The president’s stance, along with the stance of the top security and intelligence officials, was apparently the final chord, the tiebreaker if you will, in the debate between the supporters and opponents of an Israeli strike. Netanyahu, who declared that he and only he would decide whether to attack and when, will now have to reconsider his firm stance.”

A Syrian Update - The Divided Middle East

The author is impressed with the analysis and scholarly research of Professor Juan Cole and his fine blog: Informed Consent. Cole is Richard P. Mitchell Collegiate Professor of History at the University of Michigan.  So naturally we turn to him for his authoritative opinion on matters of foreign affairs and international relations.

The situation in Syria is deteriorating rapidly, as the conflict takes on a regional and sectarian dimension that many Westerners simply do not understand. An earlier, April post to this blog begins to tell that story. Cole wraps it up very nicely in this blog post.

Is Iraq Disintegrating?

Someone has to ask. Just what the hell is going on in Iraq? Is this an epic fail? From all appearances, the country is sinking back into the sectarian violence and regionalism that has characterized bad times in the past. Indeed, in the worst day of violence since March 20th, today 35 Iraqis were killed in country-wide, coordinated bombing attacks.

The recent Arab Summit held in Baghdad was a harbinger of the troubled times. Sunni Arab countries, including the Gulf States, sent very low-level diplomats to the event - and made no attempt to hide their displeasure with the current Iraqi administration headed by Nouri al-Maliki.

It's no wonder the Sunni Arab world is troubled by developments in Iraq. Bush's war and subsequent elections gave power to the majority in Iraq, who are Shia Muslims like their Persian co-religionists in the Islamic Republic of Iran. Iraq's new leadership has shown little inclination to co-exist with former enemies. And that makes Sunni, Turkmen, and Kurdish Iraqis very nervous. The Bush/US policy left Iraq with a complicated power-sharing model that was supposed to give all minorities and regions a voice in the central government and a share of revenues from the country's substantial oil fields and reserves. Trouble is, it is not working as planned.

Earlier this year, the administration of PM Al-Maliki ordered the arrest of the country's Sunni vice president: Tariq al-Hashemi. He promptly fled to Iraqi Kurdistan, then launched his own diplomatic mission to the Doha, Qatar and Saudi Arabia - both Sunni strongholds. Hashemi warned today that the country might break up under current circumstances.

The al-Maliki administration this week also arrested and detained Faraj Al-Haidari, the Kurdish head of Iraq's election commission, which further inflamed regional and ethnic conflicts. One has to wonder how this is going to end. Many speculate that the country will ultimately break-up along regional, ethnic and religious lines. For surrounding states, with the exception of Iran who might benefit, such an outcome would be a disaster. It would certainly call into even more doubt the motives, strategies and efficacy of George Bush's war; not to mention the thousands of American lives lost; the hundreds of thousands of Iraqi civilians who died in the crossfire; and, the trillions of dollars in American treasure spent on this questionable effort. Baghdad fell...and nine years later it's still falling.

Syria - The Other View

The so-called Syrian revolution, often cast as an extension of the Arab Spring, is at the center of the news on a daily basis.

After months of unrest, and over ten thousand deaths, the UN has observers on the ground after a failure by the Arab League to stop the unrest. Indeed, the Arab League is meeting in Doha as I write.

It seems clear, a dictatorial regime suppressing the democratic yearnings of its people. Most world leaders, including Sec. of State Hillary Clinton, have condemned the regime, and international sanctions are now in place. But it’s not that simple, believe me. The conflict must be viewed in the larger regional context of the ongoing struggle between Sunni and Shia branches of Islam.

Syria is a majority Sunni country, ruled by the minority Alawite sect. Alawites are an offshoot of mainstream Shia, and heavily influenced by Persian Iran. This article in “The Middle East Online” explains.

As noted in the cited article, the Shia – Sunni conflict dates back to the 7th Century and involves the direct descendent of the prophet Mohammed. As a Persian friend of mine once wryly observed: “Their guy killed our guy…” And so it goes. At the Battle of the Camel, the prophet’s widow (his second wife) opposed her step-son-in-law Ali outside the city of Basra. Her father, Abu Bakr, became Sunni Islam’s first Caliph, chosen by the faithful.  Shia discount the first three Caliphs believing that the Prophet's cousin Ali was divinely chosen to lead the faithful, and only his direct descendants can be Imams. 


 Sunni Islam emphasizes the “word” exclusively; and Shia’s celebrate the messengers, their descendents, holy places and the Islamic "saints." Shias are the majority in Iran, Iraq, Azerbaijan and Bahrain. They are the majority religious sect in Lebanon, the home of Hezbollah. But the worldwide population of Shia is relatively small, estimated to be between 10 - 20 percent of all Muslims.  They are distributed in what has been labeled the Shiite Crescent. For centuries, the Shia have been afforded second-class citizenship in majority Sunni countries. They are frequently the underclass, poorer than their Sunni neighbors. This has predisposed the Shia to being accepting of other faiths, due to their own persecution, and to issues around social justice as a consequence of their poverty and disenfranchised state. This is not always the case, as all sects have their fundamentalists.  But in the author's opinion, the Shia hold far less threat to their neighbors and the West in general than the fundamentalist, Sunni Salafi sect.

So the situation in Syria is a complex one. Minorities in Syria, like the Kurds and Christians have been reluctant to oppose Bashar al Assad - even though they support democracy - because his regime had been largely secular. A dictator to be sure, just like his strong-armed Baathist father, Assad is an educated physician who understands the consequences of defeat. And if Syria becomes democratic, he will be defeated.  The irony is that a majority Sunni government could easily end up much more repressive that Assad's Alawite, Baathist regime.  Just look at Iraq. Does anyone really believe that Iraq is better off now than it was under Saddam Hussein?  The moral of this convoluted story is that one needs to be careful what one wishes for, as it may turn out to be more than bargained for..

Source of historical background. Wikipedia Article.

An update (24/4/2012) from Kurdish News is here.

Is The NSA Spying On American Citizens?

Just a few days ago, the proverbial feces hit the fan. Wired Magazine, in a stellar piece of investigative reporting, revealed a ton of information regarding the NSA's new Utah spy center, and the agency's secretive agreements with shadowy firms to spy on US Citizens. That's right. We should all be concerned.

The story hit hard, and spread. TV News reports from small local stations all the way to national news programs highlighted the story. The US Army General responsible for the NSA felt compelled to go public with a denial. Of course, it didn't hurt that concerned congressional representative started asking direct questions. Read the Wired article. And read the General's denials here. Take note that he says quite specifically: We don't do that here. "Here" is the operative word. I submit that means the agency does not spy on US Citizens from US territory. Thus, the "here." In fact, there is evidence that we have sub-contracted that task out to trusted foreign allies like Israel and Singapore.

There are many who are quite skeptical about the General's denials. After all, it's not like the NSA has a long record of honesty when addressing Congress or the American public. It's a spy thing. So we have to rely on the judgments of others in that regard. Read what ComputerWorld had to say about the denials in this article.

Now, read about how we've outsourced the invasion of our privacy to foreign firms in this BUSINESS INSIDER article.

The Author is connected to this story, in a peripheral sort of way. During the 80's I had a chance to meet and chat with Admiral John Poindexter, the US Governments uber-geek programmer, and the conceptual architect of the TIAA (Total Information Awarness & Analysis) program that was deemed so unconstitutional by Congress that they de-funded it and sent it away. Problem is, it never really disappeared. It just went underground. I first wrote about my conversation with the Admiral years ago in THIS POST.

So you can see that in addition to Israeli firms, Singapore is also involved. Investigations reveal that THIS MAN is part of the Singaporean effort. He's an old associate of Poindexter's by the way. You remember Poindexter's TIAA, well in Singapore it's called RAHS: Risk Assessment Horizon Scanning. Snowden is an integral part of a firm called Cognitive Edge that is the architect of RAHS. From the firm's website, this vague but tantalizing description of the program.

The RAHS system is a strategic risk assessment and analysis tool, which aims to provide early alerts on potential threats to national security by building a network that links various independent government agencies throughout the Singapore government. Through the RAHS project, the government aims to identify early indicators of change, detect signals and analyze potential threat patterns which otherwise would have gone unnoticed.

Finally, here's a video piece from Amy Goodman's Democracy Today covering the story.

North Korea's Famine - A Rare View

The secretive North Korean regime, recently in the news as the new leader ascended to power, is one of the Western World's thorniest problems. Armed with nuclear weapons and in a state-of-war with our ally South Korean, the communist dictatorship appear prepared to let its own people starve, if necessary, to keep foreign influence out of the country. The subject of many jokes due to low-regard for the ruling Kim family and the aging generals that support it, the current famine is no laughing matter. It is also not easy to assess and address for international relief organizations, as the video below demonstrates. With a missle-launch scheduled for mid-April to commemorate the centenary of Kim rule, and Japan threatening to shoot-down any unauthorized launch over their airspace, North Korea is going to dominate international news for a while. The author submits this post as relevant background.

Israel Is Dragging US Into War With Iran

The author is very concerned with the recent escalation of events around the Iranian nuclear program. It's been hard to miss, as the rhetoric ratchets-up and saber rattling intensifies. Make no mistake about it. War with Iran would be a serious mistake, a strategic miscalculation that looks to plunge the Middle East into regional conflagration. Not a good idea from any point-of-view. If you share this concern, consider contacting your federal legislators and letting them know. We don't need this war now, not when we've just wound-up a disastrous campaign in Iraq and are bogged-down in an increasingly unwinnable war in Afghanistan. Not when our own economy is reeling. This is not worth American blood or treasure.

Palestine RIP - The Video YouTube Censored

After receiving almost 100,000 hits, YouTube removed all versions of this video in several languages. Score another victory for AIPAC and the Zionist lobby machine. The Author is pleased to present, via Palestinian Mothers, the video here on World Impulse. It is graphic, tragic and touching. Don't watch it unless you're prepared to have a profound emotional response.


Find more videos like this on Palestinian Mothers


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