Spurs Sweep Offensively Challenged Grizzlies
The San Antonio Spurs will be well rested when they face the Miami Heat or the Indiana Pacers in the 2013 NBA Finals; the Spurs earned a nine day vacation with their 4-0 sweep of the Memphis Grizzlies in the Western Conference Finals. Tony Parker had a magnificent series, averaging 24.5 ppg on .532 field goal shooting while also leading both teams in assists (9.5 apg). Tim Duncan played outstanding defense (3.0 bpg) while also ranking second on the Spurs in scoring (15.5 ppg); he dominated the overtime period in game two and he dominated the overtime period in game three, playing his best basketball in perhaps the two most important five minute stretches of the series.
San Antonio's third option, Manu Ginobili, averaged just 10.0 ppg while shooting a wretched .407 from the field; Ginobili only ranked fourth on the team in scoring behind Parker, Duncan and Kawhi Leonard (11.3 ppg) but he hit some timely shots and his dribble penetration opened up opportunities for San Antonio's three point shooters. Ginobili ranked second on the Spurs in assists (4.5 apg).
As I
predicted,
the Grizzlies struggled to score 90 points versus the Spurs; the
Grizzlies averaged 87.8 ppg, with their two highest scoring efforts
coming in the two overtime games (89 points in game two, 93 points in
game three). The Grizzlies are a well-coached team that plays excellent
defense; if they had not
traded Rudy Gay for spare parts (Tayshaun Prince, Austin Daye and Ed Davis) then they might have had enough offensive firepower to defeat the Spurs. Prince averaged 5.8 ppg versus the Spurs while shooting .360 from the field; although Memphis Coach Lionel Hollins kept Prince in the starting lineup, Hollins slashed Prince's minutes because of Prince's ineffectiveness. Daye and Davis rarely played during the regular season and, not surprisingly, they rarely played in the Western Conference Finals, logging a combined 25 minutes. Gay's absence--and the uselessness of the players brought in to replace him--meant that the Spurs could pack the paint, making it difficult for Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph to even catch the ball, let alone score. Gasol averaged 14.3 ppg on .397 field goal shooting and Randolph averaged 11.0 ppg on .302 field goal shooting. Call this the anti-Kobe Bryant effect.
Kobe Bryant's presence and impact boosted Pau Gasol's field goal percentage after Gasol joined the Lakers even though Bryant's field goal percentage is not extraordinarily high; the absence of Gay had a correspondingly negative effect on the field goal percentages of Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph in the Western Conference Finals. This is something that "stat gurus" do not understand: a player who can create shots for himself and others distorts the opposing defense and thus his value cannot be measured just by looking at his individual field goal percentage (or by looking at his "advanced basketball statistics"). Gay is not nearly as good as Bryant but Gay performed a similarly key function for Memphis--and that role inevitably becomes more important as a team advances deeper in the playoffs, because the game slows down and defenses focus on a team's top offensive options. The Grizzlies advanced to the Western Conference Finals despite the Gay trade, not because of it; the Grizzlies survived their first round matchup because the L.A. Clippers are not a championship caliber team and the Grizzlies eliminated the Oklahoma City Thunder mainly because of
Russell Westbrook's season-ending injury.
ESPN's halftime shows during the Western Conference Finals provided great comic relief as baffled "stat guru" apologist Bill Simmons struggled to explain what was happening; it was hilarious to hear Simmons criticizing Hollins for not benching Prince earlier in the series; not too long ago, Simmons predicted a Memphis win, he did a symbolic victory lap because he had praised the Gay trade for improving the Grizzlies and he said that Prince was a better fit for Memphis than Gay.
It will be very interesting to see if the Grizzlies retain the services of Hollins, an excellent coach who publicly criticized the money-saving but strategically unsound Gay trade by saying, "When you have champagne taste, you can't be on a beer budget." Hollins has played a major role in Memphis' steady rise in the standings but his playoff rotation demonstrated that he has no use for the players who the Memphis "stat gurus" acquired in the Gay deal so his vision of how to compete for a championship may be incompatible with the front office's plans.
Labels: Bill Simmons, Manu Ginobili, Marc Gasol, Memphis Grizzlies, Rudy Gay, San Antonio Spurs, Tayshaun Prince, Tim Duncan, Tony Parker, Zach Randolph
posted by David Friedman @ 4:56 PM
Coach Lionel Hollins Reveals What He Thinks of the Rudy Gay Trade
For the first 36 minutes, game two of the San Antonio-Memphis series looked like an instant replay of
game one: the Spurs led 51-37 at halftime of game one and extended that margin to 73-57 by the end of the third quarter; they led 46-31 at halftime of game two and still led 76-64 entering the fourth quarter. In game one, the Spurs pulled away in the fourth quarter to post a 105-83 rout but in game two San Antonio's offense completely fell apart in the fourth quarter, while Memphis Coach Lionel Hollins made a shrewd--and very necessary--lineup switch to give just enough of a boost to his team's anemic offense; those two factors--plus a very questionable flagrant foul call that contributed four points to the Memphis cause--enabled the Grizzlies to grind their way to 85 points and force overtime but that just delayed the inevitable: the Grizzlies only scored four points in the extra session and the Spurs took a 2-0 series lead with a 93-89 victory.
Tony Allen deserves an Oscar--and a flopping fine from the NBA--for his acting job after Manu Ginobili fouled him to prevent a layup in the final minute of regulation; Allen rolled around on the floor cradling his head in both of his arms as if Ginobili had caved in his skull with a brick even though replays showed that Ginobili never even touched Allen's head and that Allen did not hit his head on the floor, either. Allen made both free throws and then Mike Conley took advantage of the extra possession by scoring on a tough floater to tie the score with just :18 remaining in regulation. The game's biggest story, though, is not that sequence but rather the fine coaching job Lionel Hollins did as he attempted to strategically overcome the big mistake his front office made by trading away
Rudy Gay, Memphis' leading scorer. Less than two weeks ago,
I wrote, "Maybe the Grizzlies will find good use for the money that they saved by
getting rid of Gay's contract, maybe Davis and/or Daye will develop into
rotation players--but does anyone in his right mind believe that if
Memphis Coach Lionel Hollins were given a lie detector test he would say
that this trade improved Memphis' chances to win a championship this
season?" After watching game two, we do not need a lie detector to figure out Hollins' answer to that question; Ed Davis and Austin Daye were the only two Memphis players who did not play at all, while Hollins benched Gay's replacement Tayshaun Prince--who finished with two points on 1-5 field goal shooting in 16 minutes, compiling a -11 plus/minus rating--and Tony Allen for key second half stretches in favor of Jerryd Bayless and Quincy Pondexter. Bayless tied Conley for game-high scoring honors with 18 points and even though Bayless shot just 7-18 from the field (.389) that subpar field goal percentage was somewhat better than Memphis' overall field goal percentage (.340) and much better than either Prince's or Allen's (2-11). Bayless played 34 minutes after averaging 22.1 mpg in the regular season and 20.4 mpg in the playoffs. Pondexter added seven points on 3-6 field goal shooting and he grabbed nine rebounds in 37 minutes after averaging 21.1 mpg in the regular season and 22.7 mpg in the playoffs.
It is foolish to suggest that trading an 18 ppg scorer for spare parts did not hurt Memphis' chances to win an NBA championship but many people stubbornly insist on believing foolish things. Hollins is obviously no fool, because during Memphis' biggest game of this season he rejected the spare parts his team's management foisted on him and instead hoped that Bayless and Pondexter could save the day. ESPN's Jeff Van Gundy did a great job during the telecast of both pointing out how San Antonio's defense completely disregarded Prince and Allen when they were on the court--thus clogging the lane and making matters difficult for Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol--and also noting that San Antonio defenders were reluctant to leave Bayless and Pondexter unattended, which is why Randolph finally got going a little bit after being a non-factor in game one.
The Spurs' Tony Parker shot just 6-20 from the field en route to scoring 15 points but his deft passing (18 assists) dissected Memphis' defense. Tim Duncan was saddled with foul trouble but he dominated the overtime--scoring six of San Antonio's eight points--and he finished with 17 points, nine rebounds and four blocked shots. Ginobili had a quiet game (seven points, four assists in 29 minutes) but the
beauty of being the third option is that you are not expected to be great every single game--a luxury that James Harden will learn to appreciate the longer that he is away from the Oklahoma City Thunder.
Hollins will no doubt insert Bayless and Pondexter in the lineup earlier than usual in game three and he will reduce Prince's and Allen's minutes but the problem is that Bayless and Pondexter are bench players for good reason; they are not equipped to effectively play heavy duty minutes game after game. Bench players generally play better at home than on the road, so Hollins' lineup switch may help the Grizzlies win one or even two games in Memphis but in the long run Bayless and Pondexter cannot undo the damage that the Gay trade did. Memphis will continue to struggle to score enough points to beat San Antonio.
San Antonio squandered a 2-0 lead against Oklahoma City in last year's
playoffs and Memphis overcame a 2-0 deficit versus the L.A. Clippers in
the first round of this year's playoffs but those were exceptions to the
NBA rule: teams that take 2-0 leads win the series nearly 94% of the
time. Some people may suggest that the second half comeback in game two will give
the Grizzlies momentum as the series moves to Memphis for the next two
games but the reality is that, barring an injury or suspension to a key
player, this series is already over and all that remains to be decided
is how many games it will last.
Labels: Jerryd Bayless, Manu Ginobili, Marc Gasol, Memphis Grizzlies, Quincy Pondexter, Rudy Gay, San Antonio Spurs, Tayshaun Prince, Tim Duncan, Tony Parker, Zach Randolph
posted by David Friedman @ 5:41 AM
Spurs Tame Grizzlies in Game One of the Western Conference Finals
Yes, it's only one game--though game one winners advance roughly 80% of the time in the NBA playoffs--but the first game of the Western Conference Finals went almost exactly as
I predicted the series will go based on the skill set strengths and weaknesses of the respective teams. The San Antonio Spurs' 105-83 rout of the Memphis Grizzlies exposed a lot of Memphis' flaws--flaws that went unmentioned in most "expert" analysis of this series:
1) The Memphis Grizzlies were not able to slow the game down; I said that for the Grizzlies to beat the Spurs the final score would have to be in the low 90s but Memphis neither reached that total nor held the Spurs below that total.
2) I wrote that Memphis would struggle to score 40 points in some halves and that it would be interesting to hear what Bill Simmons says at the halftime of the first game when Memphis has scored less than 40 points. Memphis trailed 51-37 at halftime and only surpassed the 40 point barrier in the second half by tacking on eight meaningless garbage time points in the last 1:47. Simmons called the first half the "worst scenario" for Memphis but said that Memphis "still kind of hung in a little bit." No, it was not a "worst scenario"; it was a predictable scenario for anyone who understood the matchups--and since when does trailing by 14 after scoring just 37 points count as hanging in a little bit? The game showed all the signs of the blowout that it eventually turned out to be; I don't expect every game of the series to be a blowout but anyone who watched the first half with understanding would have expected the Spurs to win by at least 20 even after the Grizzlies made a brief third quarter run: the Spurs were completely outexecuting the Grizzlies at both ends of the court and thus Quincy Pondexter's third quarter three point shooting barrage only delayed the inevitable.
3) "Stat gurus" praise
the Rudy Gay trade as if it cured world hunger, solved the energy crisis and conclusively proved that anyone who does not swear permanent allegiance to "advanced basketball statistics" is hopelessly ignorant. The Grizzlies dealt Rudy Gay--their leading scorer who is also one of the top rebounders at the small forward position--and received in exchange Tayshaun Prince, Austin Daye and Ed Davis. If Daye or Davis appear in a game you can be pretty sure that someone is getting blown out and/or the Grizzlies have lost players due to injury/foul trouble. Prince took over Gay's starting small forward position and has become the 6-9 version of the Invisible Man; Prince was a key contributor to Detroit's championship team--in
2004--but he has lost a step (or two or three) laterally and he was never a big-time scorer. As Memphis' offense died on the vine in game one, Prince contributed six points on 2-5 field goal shooting, one rebound and two assists in 29 minutes. The Spurs felt free to sag off of Prince to protect the paint. I don't know what kind of impact Rudy Gay might have had in this series but I'm willing to bet it would have been more than six points in 29 minutes and I suspect that the Spurs would not have sunk his defender into the paint. Daye and Davis shot a combined 3-8 from the field in game one, mainly during what Marv Albert would call "extensive garbage time."
4) The Grizzlies shot .432 from the field as the Spurs fronted Memphis' post players and also collapsed perimeter defenders into the paint, daring Memphis' non-shooters to shoot and not providing any room for Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol to operate. Randolph made just one of his eight field goal attempts and posted a -28 plus/minus number in his 28 minutes. One third quarter play symbolized Randolph's utter frustration: Randolph committed an offensive foul by pushing Tim Duncan, the officials did not call the foul and Randolph still missed the wide open layup.
5) While Memphis' offense sputtered, San Antonio executed flawlessly and did exactly what I expected: spread the floor and kill the Grizzlies with dribble penetration leading both to layups and wide open three point shots. Tony Parker led both teams in scoring (20 points) and assists (nine),
putting on a clinic while he ran circles around Memphis' defense. Neither Tim Duncan (six points, 3-9 field goal shooting) nor Manu Ginobili (eight points on 2-6 field goal shooting) did much offensively but Duncan anchored the Spurs' defense, controlled the glass with a game-high 10 rebounds and distributed the ball well (four assists, second on the team to Parker).
San Antonio may not make 14 three pointers in a game again the rest of the series and Zach Randolph will play better but--barring injuries or serious foul trouble--this series is on course to play out like I expected, much to the surprise of all of the "experts" who considered Memphis to be a heavy favorite.
Labels: Manu Ginobili, Marc Gasol, Memphis Grizzlies, Rudy Gay, San Antonio Spurs, Tayshaun Prince, Tim Duncan, Tony Parker, Zach Randolph
posted by David Friedman @ 7:58 AM
San Antonio Versus Memphis Preview
Western Conference Finals
#2 San Antonio Spurs (58-24) vs. #5 Memphis (56-26)
Season series: Tied, 2-2
Memphis can win if…the
Grizzlies slow the game down, pound the ball inside, and keep the final scores no higher than the low 90s. Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol are arguably the best power forward/center duo in the league and they must be productive and efficient against San Antonio's Tim Duncan/Tiago Splitter tandem.
San Antonio will win because…the
Spurs are comfortable playing at a fast or a slow tempo; the Spurs can match up with the Grizzlies in a grind it out game but they are too smart and well-coached to rely on this: San Antonio will push the pace and force the Grizzlies to defend all over the court, spreading Memphis' defense with corner three point shooters and attacking the paint with dribble penetration by Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili.
Other things to consider: The regular season head to head record is meaningless; three of the games took place before the
Rudy Gay trade and the Spurs sat out two thirds of their "Big Three" (Tim Duncan and Manu Ginobili) in the fourth game--though it is worth noting that the Grizzlies only won the latter contest 92-90 even though they were at full strength.
The 2011 first round series when Memphis defeated San Antonio in six games is also meaningless; O.J. Mayo, Sam Young and Shane Battier were key rotation players for the Grizzlies at that time, while Richard Jefferson, Antonio McDyess and George Hill were key rotation players for the Spurs. It is hilarious to hear "analysis" of this series that focuses on some version of "Memphis beat San Antonio without Rudy Gay in 2011 so the Grizzlies won't miss him versus San Antonio in 2013." Both teams have significantly different rotations now, so this series should be evaluated based on the skill sets of the current players and the likely matchups/mismatches.
The Grizzlies enjoyed a favorable path to the Western Conference Finals, beating the overrated L.A. Clippers and then taking advantage of the Russell Westbrook injury to defeat the Oklahoma City Thunder. The Spurs essentially had a first round bye
against the sleepwalking, Kobe Bryant-less L.A. Lakers but then they faced a surprisingly tough Golden State squad; San Antonio beat Golden State in a high scoring game one (129-127 in double overtime) and then San Antonio closed out the series in a low scoring game six (94-82)--and that is the key factor in this series: the Spurs can play small/fast and they can play big/slow but the Grizzlies can only be effective with a big/slow lineup.
If Parker and Ginobili attack the paint and set up the Spurs' three point shooters then it will be difficult for the Grizzlies to score enough points even if Randolph and Gasol win the battle versus Duncan and Splitter--and it is not at all certain that Randolph and Gasol will significantly outplay their San Antonio counterparts. Memphis will struggle to score more than 90 points per game in this
series. The Grizzlies averaged 93.6 ppg versus the Thunder in the
Western Conference semifinals and the only time they topped 100 points
they needed an overtime session to do it. The Spurs will score more points against the Grizzlies than the Thunder scored and the Spurs are better equipped to match up with the Grizzlies defensively.
Could Memphis win the series? Sure; if the final scores are something like 80-75 and if Randolph/Gasol put up 25-12 and 18-10 respectively while the Grizzlies contain Parker/Ginobili without losing control of San Antonio's three point shooters then Memphis can beat San Antonio--but I expect final scores in the 95-90 range or above and I just don't see Memphis scoring 95 points four times in this series.
Labels: Manu Ginobili, Marc Gasol, Memphis Grizzlies, Rudy Gay, San Antonio Spurs, Tayshaun Prince, Tim Duncan, Tony Parker, Zach Randolph
posted by David Friedman @ 3:10 PM
First Impressions of the Rudy Gay Trade
There are many ways to evaluate an NBA trade but--contrary to the popular trend of providing "analysis" that is instant, not very deep and focused on the short term--I prefer to take a deliberate, in depth and long term approach. The Memphis Grizzlies, a legitimate championship contender, shipped leading scorer Rudy Gay to the Toronto Raptors in exchange for Toronto's Ed Davis, Detroit's Austin Daye and Detroit's Tayshaun Prince, with Detroit receiving Jose Calderon from Toronto and Hamed Haddadi from Memphis to complete the deal. Memphis also received Detroit's 2013 second round draft pick.
It is very unusual for a contender to trade their leading scorer in the middle of the season and it is even more unusual for a contender to make such a deal without receiving in exchange even the second best player involved in the transaction; Tayshaun Prince made the All-Defensive Team four straight years but his last appearance on the squad was in 2008, Austin Daye was the 10th man on a bad Detroit team and Ed Davis is a solid young big man but his career arc thus far hardly screams superstar in the making: Jose Calderon is clearly the second best player involved in this three team deal but Memphis gave up Gay without even getting Calderon. Everyone understands that Memphis' primary motivation was to save money by avoiding future luxury tax payments and no one disputes that Gay is overpaid but Memphis players and fans are understandably discouraged that management broke up a potential championship team purely for financial reasons.
The "stat gurus" have always hated Gay's game and now that "stat guru" John Hollinger is a member of Memphis' front office it is not surprising that Memphis made this deal; Hollinger's PER statistic ranks Gay just 26th out of 70 qualifying small forwards and just 152nd overall out of 334 qualifying players. By Hollinger's reckoning, Gay is roughly as valuable as Kyle Korver or Shannon Brown--but one of the major limitations of "advanced basketball statistics" is that most such formulas do not take into account the value of being able to create one's own shot and/or draw a double team. Gay's field goal percentage has been hovering in career-low territory all season but his presence still created space for Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol and he ranked third on the team in rebounds, steals and blocked shots; Gay provided a lot of value that is not captured by "advanced basketball statistics." It also is not good for team morale if the coaching staff and players believe that management is more interested in cutting costs than in producing a champion. Considering the paltry returns that the Grizzlies received for Gay, they should have let this season play out and then dealt Gay during the summer, if necessary; critics hammered the Grizzlies for the Pau Gasol deal but that trade made much more sense than this one: Pau Gasol was clearly not a franchise player and the Grizzlies needed to completely reboot their roster, which that deal facilitated not only directly (by bringing Marc Gasol aboard) but also by making it possible for the Grizzlies to later acquire Zach Randolph, Mike Conley and Tony Allen (among others). It is extremely unlikely that the Gay deal will have a positive impact for Memphis even remotely approaching that level; the Gay deal weakened Memphis in the short run and, other than saving some money, it is not at all clear that it will strengthen Memphis in the long run.
Memphis saved a ton of cash and acquired some spare parts but Gay will likely be a 20-plus ppg scorer for several years for the Raptors while Calderon--who ranks eighth in the league in assists and has finished in the top five in that category four of the past five seasons--solidifies the point guard position for the Pistons, perhaps indicating that Joe Dumars has overcome his
peculiar fascination with Rodney Stuckey; Dumars got rid of three perennial All-Stars (Chauncey Billups, Allen Iverson and Richard Hamilton) to create playing time for Stuckey, who has yet to prove that he is more than an average player. Unless Davis develops into a significant member of the Memphis rotation and/or Prince provides some flashbacks of his former defensive prowess the Grizzlies will get less value out of this deal than both the Raptors and the Pistons.
How is Memphis' cost-cutting different from what the Oklahoma City Thunder did with
James Harden? The two huge differences are that the Thunder have two players who are much more valuable than Harden and the Thunder replaced Harden with a player (Kevin Martin) who can more than adequately fill Harden's role; in contrast, Gay was Memphis' leading scorer--which is significant regardless of how much the "stat gurus" carp about Gay's efficiency--and the Grizzlies did not come close to acquiring a player who can adequately fill Gay's role (which, it must be emphasized again, involved not just leading the team in scoring but also creating floor spacing while being versatile enough to rank third on the team in rebounds, steals and blocked shots). Strip away all of the hype about Harden's individual numbers and look at Houston's bottom line: a .515 winning percentage in 2011-12 without Harden and a .531 winning percentage in 2012-13 with Harden, which over 82 games roughly translates into the difference between being a 42 win team and being a 44 win team. Meanwhile, the Thunder not only improved their financial situation by dealing Harden but they actually increased their winning percentage from .712 in 2011-12 to .745 in 2012-13. It is worth remembering that Houston has a 9-10 playoff record and three Lottery appearances during Daryl Morey's five year reign--and the Rockets (who are currently clinging to the eighth and final playoff spot in the West) may very well be heading for their fourth Lottery appearance by the end of Morey's sixth season. As Mike Lupica once said in a different context, it is time for the guru to start "guruing." The Grizzlies built a very strong playoff team after trading away "stat guru" favorite Pau Gasol--a player who Morey has openly coveted for quite some time--so it will be interesting to see if Memphis' "stat guru" fares any better in the next five years than Houston's "stat guru" has fared in the previous five years.
Labels: Daryl Morey, Detroit Pistons, Ed Davis, Hamed Haddadi, Houston Rockets, James Harden, John Hollinger, Jose Calderon, Memphis Grizzlies, Oklahoma City Thunder, Rudy Gay, Tayshaun Prince, Toronto Raptors
posted by David Friedman @ 3:33 AM
Team USA Olympics Report Card
After Team USA went 5-0 during the pre-Olympic exhibition tour, I wrote a
report card for SlamOnline. Kobe Bryant, LeBron James and Dwyane Wade were the three "A" students. Not surprisingly, they also finished at the top of the class on my Olympics report card as well.
Players are listed in order of minutes played because that statistic provides a hint about Coach Mike Krzyzewski's evaluation. Wade, James, Bryant and Anthony were Team USA's four leading scorers, so I also included their box score statistics in the one and done medal round play (the final three games). It should go without saying--but I'll say it anyway--that it is not meaningful to compare a player's numbers in 40 minute games played under FIBA rules with his numbers in 48 minute games played under NBA rules. A better yardstick is to consider how the top players from the 1992 Dream Team performed. Charles Barkley led the 1992 Dream Team in scoring (18.0 ppg) while shooting .711 from the field. He averaged 4.1 rpg (tied with David Robinson for third on the team) and 2.4 apg. Michael Jordan ranked second in scoring (14.9 ppg), second in assists (4.8 apg), led the team in steals (37) and averaged 2.4 rpg. Jordan shot .451 from the field--worse than any player other than little used Christian Laettner--and just 4-19 (.211) from three point range. Karl Malone ranked third in scoring (13.0 ppg) and tied with Patrick Ewing for the team lead in rebounding (5.3 rpg). Chris Mullin (12.9 ppg) and Clyde Drexler (10.5 ppg) were the other double figure scorers. Scottie Pippen (9.0 ppg) led the team in assists (5.9 apg) and ranked second in steals (23).
The grades listed below represent how well a particular player filled his respective role on the team; obviously, some players had bigger roles than others, so a bench player's "B" does not mean the same thing as a starter's "B." Production when games were close is given a heavier weight than production that took place after the victories were already well in hand.
I recorded on court/off court data throughout the Olympics for five players: Bryant, James, Wade, Carmelo Anthony and Jason Kidd. These numbers simply indicate how many points Team USA scored and how many points Team USA's opponents scored when a given player was in the game; this data provides a very rudimentary indication of a player's impact but it does not include "game state" information such as which other players were on the court at the same time or how close the score of the game was: production is more significant when it takes place against the toughest opponents in close games, as opposed to statistics that are accumulated against reserves at the end of blowouts.
LeBron James (24.8 mpg, 15.5 ppg, 3.8 apg, 5.3 rpg, 19 steals, eight blocked shots overall; 26.7 mpg, 15 ppg, 2.7 apg, 6.7 rpg, 7 steals, one blocked shot in medal round play)
James led Team USA in steals and blocked shots, ranked second in scoring and assists and shot .602 from the field, including .464 from three point range. The only negatives on his ledger were free throw shooting (.458) and turnovers (a team-high 17). James put up the best overall box score numbers of any player on the team. As Doug Collins noted during several of the telecasts, James played terrific help defense on the back line, blocking shots and getting steals. Not surprisingly, James' minutes went up during medal round play and he continued to post excellent box score numbers.
Team USA outscored the opposition by 154 points overall when James was on the court and they outscored the opposition by 50 points when James was on the court during the medal round games.
Grade: "A"
Kobe Bryant (23.5 mpg, 15.0 ppg, 2.1 apg, 2.8 rpg, nine steals, four blocked shots overall; 28 mpg, 19 ppg, 2.7 apg, 3.3 rpg, three steals, three blocked shots in medal round play)
Bryant ranked third on Team USA in scoring, fourth in assists and steals and first in three pointers made. He finished right behind James in turnovers (15) and, like James, did not shoot very well from the free throw line (.583). Bryant shot .462 from the field and .321 from three point range but after his much celebrated 1-15 start from behind the arc in the first two games he shot 16-38 (.421) the rest of the way.
As soon as Bryant joined the team he immediately asked to be assigned the task of guarding the best perimeter player on each opposing team. That was Bryant's primary responsibility for Team USA and he did an excellent job in this regard. He often took a back seat offensively but when the chips were down in the medal round Bryant averaged a team-high 19 ppg while shooting .500 from the field and .375 from three point range. He dominated the fourth quarter of the
118-107 win over Spain in the gold medal game, scoring 13 points and adding two assists in that final stanza.
Team USA came up short in the three previous major FIBA competitions (2004 Olympics, 2006 and 2002 FIBA World Championship) primarily because of a lack of on court leadership, poor defense and the inability or unwillingness of anyone to step up in crucial moments in medal round games. James and Wade each had superb tournaments in the 2008 Olympics--very similar to their performances in the 2006 FIBA World Championship--but the difference this time around was that Bryant provided precisely what Team USA had been missing in the three areas mentioned above.
Team USA outscored the opposition by 134 points overall when Bryant was on the court and they outscored the opposition by 52 points when he was on the court during the medal round games.
Grade: "A"
Chris Paul (21.9 mpg, 8.0 ppg, 4.1 apg, 3.6 rpg, 18 steals, 0 blocked shots overall)
Paul led Team USA in assists and free throw percentage (.917), tied for second in steals and he easily had the best assist/turnover ratio (3.67/1). Paul forced a lot of turnovers with his ball pressure but on occasions he let his man get by him off of the dribble, resulting in defensive breakdowns. He padded some of his numbers in the fourth quarters of blowouts but in several games he also provided a nice spark off of the bench to help Team USA build large leads.
Grade: "B+"
Carmelo Anthony (19.1 mpg, 11.5 ppg, .4 apg, 4.3 rpg, eight steals, two blocked shots overall; 22 mpg, 16.3 ppg, .3 apg, 3.3 rpg, two steals, one blocked shot in medal round play)
Anthony ranked fourth on Team USA in scoring and rebounding. He tied for the team lead in fouls committed. Only three players had fewer assists (Bosh, Boozer and Prince). Anthony led Team USA in scoring during the 2007 FIBA Americas tournament and the 2006 FIBA World Championship, so his scoring output in the Olympics has to be considered a major disappointment, particularly in light of his dismal field goal percentage (.422, lower than every other player except Redd). Anthony's .481 two point field goal percentage was also the second lowest on the team and he was the only player among the top seven scorers who did not shoot at least .600 on two point shots. Before the Olympics, Anthony vowed to average 10 rpg and to break the Team USA single game Olympic rebounding record but he never came close to doing either of those things. The main positive for Anthony is that he shot .828 from the free throw line, the one area where Bryant, James and Wade struggled.
Anthony increased his scoring to 16.3 ppg in medal round play but that number is deceptive: he shot .382 from the field in those three games and even though he led Team USA in scoring versus Argentina (21 points) he shot 3-14 from the field in that contest.
Team USA outscored the opposition by 86 points overall when Anthony was on the court and they outscored the opposition by just 25 points when Anthony was on the court during medal round play. Among the five players I tracked, Anthony is the only one who had a negative on court rating for an entire game--and this happened twice: Angola outscored Team USA 46-42 when Anthony was on the court and in the gold medal game Spain outscored Team USA 49-38 when Anthony was on the court. It is no coincidence that Anthony was not in the game for the last eight minutes of the fourth quarter of the gold medal game; throughout the Olympics, Anthony was often on the bench when Team USA made its best runs and when he was in games during such runs it was generally James, Wade and/or Bryant who shouldered most of the load.
Grade: "C-"
Deron Williams (19.0 mpg, 8.0 ppg, 2.8 apg, 2.3 rpg, six steals, 0 blocked shots overall)
Williams ranked second on Team USA in free throw percentage (.900) and third in assists. He did a good job of using his size and strength to penetrate opposing defenses. He made a few bad gambles defensively and was sometimes careless with his ballhandling but overall he did a very solid job.
Grade: "B"
Dwyane Wade (18.8 mpg, 16.0 ppg, 1.9 apg, 4.0 rpg, 18 steals, one blocked shot overall; 19.3 mpg, 15.7 ppg, 1.7 apg, 4.7 rpg, six steals, 0 blocked shots in medal round play)
Wade led Team USA in scoring, tied for second in steals and he ranked second in three point shooting percentage (.471) among players who attempted more than two three pointers. Wade shot a blistering .671 from the field overall, trailing only Howard and Bosh among players who attempted at least one shot a game (Kidd shot 6-7 from the field). Wade struggled a bit from the free throw line (.634) and at times made some risky defensive gambles but his overall play was superb. He clearly has healed completely from his injuries and regained--if not increased--his previous athletic ability and explosiveness.
Wade did not start one game; he usually came off of the bench midway through the first quarter to replace Anthony, though sometimes foul trouble altered that rotation. Wade's on court numbers (not his own stats per se, but rather Team USA's scoring margin when he was in the game) benefited from not sharing minutes with Anthony, while Bryant and James' numbers were dragged down a bit in this regard. As a sixth man who played limited minutes, Wade had the advantage of being fresh and from playing against either reserve players or tired starters; after just two minutes of play in the second quarter of Team USA's
92-69 win over Greece, Wade asked to come out of the game because he was totally gassed. None of this diminishes how well Wade played but it goes a long way toward explaining why Wade came off of the bench instead of starting, why he did not play as many minutes as Bryant or James and why people should not be quick to assume that this performance means that Wade will be on the All-NBA First Team this season; in order for Wade to resume being an elite level NBA player he will have to be able to stay healthy and productive while playing 35-plus mpg over the course of an 82 game season.
Team USA outscored the opposition by 161 points overall when Wade was on the court and they outscored the opposition by 48 points when Wade was on the court during the medal round games.
Grade: "A"
Chris Bosh (17.3 mpg, 9.1 ppg, .3 apg, 6.1 rpg, two steals, six blocked shots overall)
Bosh led Team USA in rebounding and field goal percentage (.774) and he ranked second in free throw percentage (.862). He was perhaps the most pleasant surprise; Wade's performance was more a matter of him getting healthy than anything else, but Bosh supplanted Howard as Team USA's most effective big. Bosh not only played very well in the paint at both ends of the court but he also did a great job of helping to defend on the perimeter against screen/roll plays. His emergence relegated Boozer to mop up duty and further reinforced a theme that I emphasized all along, namely that Team USA did not need another big on the roster; USA Basketball managing director Jerry Colangelo was right to bolster the team's size and defensive flexibility on the perimeter, fully realizing that Team USA would only play one traditional big at a time. In terms of FIBA play, Bosh proved to be a better big than Amare Stoudemire, who played in the 2007 FIBA Americas tournament but decided to rest his knees this summer.
Grade: "A"
Dwight Howard (16.1 mpg, 10.9 ppg, .5 apg, 5.8 rpg, five steals, seven blocked shots overall)
Howard ranked second on Team USA in rebounding, blocked shots and field goal percentage (.745) and fifth in scoring. He was not quite as dominant or effective as he was in the 2007 FIBA Americas tournament in terms of field goal percentage and blocked shots but Team USA faced tougher opposition in this event. Howard sometimes got caught up in retaliating against opposing players and he seemed to get into Coach Krzyzewski's dog house a couple times. Nevertheless, he started every game at center, scored in double figures and was a physical presence in the paint at both ends of the court. His screen/roll defense was not nearly as good as Bosh's.
Grade: "B+"
Jason Kidd (13.5 mpg, 1.6 ppg, 2.0 apg, 2.6 rpg, five steals, two blocked shots overall)
Despite his limited minutes, Kidd ranked fourth on Team USA in assists. He famously did not shoot frequently but he made his attempts count by converting six of his seven shots. The only downside for Kidd is that he forced a few passes, resulting in 12 turnovers. During the Olympics, Kidd somehow turned into the player that fan bloggers loved to hate. Yes, his boxscore numbers will not blow anyone away but he was USA Basketball's Player of the Year in 2007 after he put up similar numbers in the FIBA Americas tournament: 15.8 mpg, 1.8 ppg, 4.6 apg, 3.3 rpg, 13 steals, five blocked shots). The way that Kidd and Team USA played in that event paved the way for this year's Olympics triumph. Although Kidd is a triple double king in the NBA, in FIBA play his value is not captured by numbers alone. Team USA struggled defensively in recent years, particularly in the backcourt, but the addition of Bryant and Kidd to the starting lineup not only fixed that problem but resulted in the rest of the players stepping up their defense as well. Kidd is a winner. I don't like to mix NBA or NCAA stats with FIBA stats but it is worth mentioning that there is a consistent pattern throughout Kidd's career that teams he joins increase their winning percentage and that teams he leaves experience a decline in winning percentage.
From a minutes standpoint, Kidd took a backseat to youngsters Paul and Williams, though it should be noted that Paul and Williams played almost all of the garbage time minutes; the minutes when games were up for grabs were pretty evenly split among that trio.
Kidd had a game-high seven assists in Team USA's
101-81 semifinal victory over Argentina. The semifinal round was the graveyard for Team USA in the 2006 FIBA World Championship and the 2004 Olympics but this time around Kidd made sure that this would not happen; early in the second half he did an excellent job of setting down Team USA's halfcourt offense, making sure that Howard got the ball in the paint.
Team USA outscored the opposition by 69 points overall when Kidd was on the court and they outscored the opposition by 31 points when he was on the court during medal round play.
Grade: "B+"
Tayshaun Prince (11.0 mpg, 4.3 ppg, .3 apg, 1.9 rpg, three steals, one blocked shot overall)
Prince, Redd and Boozer were clearly the last men on the bench for this team but Prince received more non-garbage time minutes than Redd and Boozer did. Prince led Team USA in three point field goal percentage (6-11, .545), though he obviously did not shoot nearly as many three pointers as Wade, James and several others. Prince shot .591 from the field overall but his real value is that he is a long armed defender who can guard multiple positions; that makes him a more valuable FIBA player for Team USA than a one dimensional shooter like Redd.
I gave Prince an "I" (incomplete) in my previous report card but since his non-garbage time minutes increased during the Olympics he showed enough to get a regular grade this time.
Grade: "B+"
Michael Redd (9.1 mpg, 3.1 ppg, .5 apg, 1.1 rpg, two steals, 0 blocked shots overall)
Redd was the darling of many so-called experts, the player whose outside marksmanship would supposedly be vital for Team USA to win the gold medal. Last year, I did a post titled
Team USA Needs Bruce Bowen More Than it Needs Michael Redd and I have consistently and repeatedly stated that Redd--who is a very good NBA player--would be nothing more than a spare part on this squad for the following reasons: Team USA's primary focus has to be defense, Team USA has several players who are better perimeter defenders than Redd who can also make the shorter FIBA three point shot and it is much more important for Team USA to defend opposing three point shooters than it is for Team USA to make three pointers.
Redd shot .323 from the field in the Olympics, including .278 from three point range. He rarely appeared on the court before the victory was completely secured; in the gold medal game he did not check in until the final seconds.
Considering that Redd is a pure shooter who had by far the worst shooting percentage on the team it is tempting to give him an "F" but that would not really be fair considering his limited playing time. However, can we please stop hearing about how Team USA needs pure shooters like Redd, Mike Miller and (I hope no one is serious about this) J.J. Redick?
Grade: "I"
Carlos Boozer (6.0 mpg, 3.3 ppg, .3 apg, 1.9 rpg, two steals, 0 blocked shots overall)
I thought that Howard would play about 20 mpg and that Boozer and Bosh would average roughly 10 mpg each but Bosh played so well that he grabbed some minutes from both Howard and Boozer. Contrary to the dire predictions that Team USA did not have enough size up front, the reality proved to be exactly what I predicted: Team USA's versatile perimeter defenders wreaked havoc, James and Anthony took turns playing power forward and Team USA only needed one true NBA big on the court at a time; sometimes Team USA went with a small lineup with no true NBA bigs.
Boozer was a spare part for this team and any other big (Tyson Chandler is the name that came up most often) that people wanted to add either in his place or instead of one of the perimeter players would also have been a spare part.
Grade: "I"
Final thoughts:
Anthony (19.9 ppg), Wade (19.3 ppg) and James (13.9 ppg) were the three leading scorers on the 2006 version of Team USA that settled for the bronze medal in the FIBA World Championship. Howard and Elton Brand split the starting duties at center, while Bosh came off of the bench. Chris Paul started six of nine games at point guard and led the team in assists.
Anthony played much worse in this year's Olympics than he did for Team USA in 2006, while Wade and James performed comparably offensively and better defensively this time around. Bosh received more minutes in 2008 and played better defensively. However, if you compare the rosters, the statistics and the visual evidence, the obvious difference between this version of Team USA and the previous versions came at the defensive end of the court. In 2006, Team USA opponents shot .462 from the field and .349 from three point range; in 2008, Team USA opponents shot .403 from the field and .299 from three point range. The defensive improvement began when Colangelo added Bryant and Kidd to the roster: Colangelo says that, Krzyzewksi says that, the team's scouts say that and the players say that.
Labels: 2008 Team USA, Carlos Boozer, Carmelo Anthony, Chris Bosh, Chris Paul, Deron Williams, Dwight Howard, Dwyane Wade, Jason Kidd, Kobe Bryant, LeBron James, Michael Redd, Tayshaun Prince
posted by David Friedman @ 7:40 PM
Team USA Pre-Olympic Exhibition Tour Report Card
My report card for Team USA's Pre-Olympic Exhibition Tour has been published at SlamOnline. You can check it out here:
Team USA Exhibition Tour Report CardLabels: 2008 Team USA, Carlos Boozer, Carmelo Anthony, Chris Bosh, Chris Paul, Deron Williams, Dwight Howard, Dwyane Wade, Jason Kidd, Kobe Bryant, LeBron James, Michael Redd, Tayshaun Prince
posted by David Friedman @ 2:05 PM
Analyzing Team USA's 12 Man Roster
On Monday, USA Basketball announced the 12 man roster that will comprise the 2008 U.S. Olympic basketball team. Five of the 12 have participated in the Olympics previously (Carmelo Anthony, Carlos Boozer, LeBron James, Jason Kidd and Dwyane Wade); the only U.S. team that had more Olympic veterans was the 1996 squad--that unit welcomed back six players from the 1992 U.S. Olympic team, the only group that truly deserved the "Dream Team" designation. Eight members of the 2008 team played in the 2007 FIBA Americas tournament, which Team USA won with a 10-0 record; here is a list of those eight players, along with some of their statistics from the 2007 FIBA Americas tournament.
Carmelo Anthony (21.2 ppg, .613 FG%, .578 3Pt FG%, 5.2 rpg, 1.4 apg in nine games)
LeBron James (18.1 ppg, .760 FG%, .622 3Pt FG%, 3.6 rpg, 4.7 apg in 10 games)
Kobe Bryant (15.3 ppg, .548 FG%, .459 3Pt FG%, 2.0 rpg, 2.9 apg in 10 games)
Michael Redd (14.4 ppg, .530 FG%, .453 3Pt FG%, 1.4 rpg, 1.5 apg in 10 games)
Dwight Howard (10.0 ppg, .814 FG%, 5.3 rpg, 18 blocked shots in 10 games)
Tayshaun Prince (7.3 ppg, .481 FG%, .357 3Pt FG%, 5.0 rpg, 2.1 apg in nine games)
Deron Williams (4.7 ppg, .613 FG%, 5-10 3Pt FG, 1.0 rpg, 4.6 apg in 10 games)
Jason Kidd (1.8 ppg, 6-10 FG, 5-8 3Pt FG, 3.3 rpg, 4.6 apg in 10 games)
Amare Stoudemire and Chauncey Billups played in 2007 but withdrew their names from the selection process this time around. Tyson Chandler played the fewest minutes on the 2007 team and Mike Miller had the second lowest field goal percentage on the 2007 team. Those four players have been replaced by Carlos Boozer, Chris Bosh, Chris Paul and Dwyane Wade.
In addition to the Olympic and international experience listed above, the current roster has the 2008 NBA MVP (Bryant), four of the five members of the 2008 All-NBA First Team (Bryant, James, Howard and Paul) plus a 2008 All-NBA Second Team selection (Williams) and a 2008 All-NBA Third Team selection (Boozer).
Since the debacles for Team USA in 2002, 2004 and 2006, USA Basketball has emphasized that it wants a three year commitment from players so that the team can develop cohesion and chemistry. That is why the fifth member of the 2008 All-NBA First Team, Kevin Garnett, is not on the roster. USA Basketball managing director Jerry Colangelo said of Garnett, "We never got any positive feedback of his interest. It was more about 'I've been there, I've done that and it's time for someone else to do it.' I had a number of conversations with his agent just to check the temperature of the water, and there was never any positive response. We would have loved to have had him...but obviously, it wasn't in the cards."
The key additions to the 2007 team were Kobe Bryant and Jason Kidd; they quickly emerged as team leaders because of their professionalism, work ethic and defensive intensity, three qualities that had been noticeably missing on recent editions of Team USA. U.S. Coach Mike Krzyzewski said, "Kobe is unbelievably committed to representing his country. Last summer playing for our team, the first time he saw his uniform, he got emotional...The first thing he did for us last summer, he was our best perimeter defender--and that's a role he wanted...I think we'll start out with the same thing because he knows he can play that way and expend the energy on defense because of the offensive talent of his teammates...We usually put him on the best perimeter player on the opposing team whether it be a point guard or a wing, and that's how we started the game. And that's how I want to start our practice sessions with that in mind." Bryant sacrificed some of his offensive game to concentrate on defense but still managed to finish third on the team in scoring and fourth in assists.
In a December 5, 2007 post, I mentioned some things that Suns General Manager Steve Kerr told me that then-Suns Coach Mike D'Antoni--a Team USA assistant coach--had said about Bryant's role on Team USA:
Prior to each game in last summer's FIBA Americas tournament, Bryant asked the coaching staff, "Who do you want me to take out?" In other words, Bryant wanted to know who was the toughest perimeter threat on each team so that he could study his tendencies on film and then completely neutralize him on the court. I said to Kerr, "That sounds like a sniper zeroing in on a target" and Kerr replied, "Yeah--and he was serious." Kerr went on to say that Bryant's "focus" and "bravado" added an essential missing element to the squad and elevated everyone else's play. Kerr noted that the previous Team USA squad had performed reasonably well other than the infamous loss to Greece but that it lacked a certain "swagger," as he termed it, and that Team USA did not have a "player who everyone feared." Kerr literally shook his head in wonderment as he described Bryant's impact on Team USA.Kidd's leadership came in a much subtler form; there is virtually no statistical evidence of it, other than the fact that he ranked second on the team in assists--but make no mistake that he played a very key role on the team. He has never lost a game while wearing a Team USA jersey and he made it clear that he does not intend on ending that streak now.
The usual starting lineup of Bryant, Kidd, James, Anthony and Howard generally led the team to such big early leads that players like Redd, Stoudemire and Williams put up a lot of their numbers in de facto garbage time. Though casual fans probably assume that Chris Paul will be the starting point guard, I expect Coach Krzyzewski to use the same starting lineup during the Olympics that he employed during the FIBA Americas tournament; Kidd only ended up playing 15.9 mpg because Team USA won so many blowouts but I think that it is important to start the game with a group that has played together before in FIBA competition. This is not some All-Star exhibition in which Team USA can rotate who starts. Paul may end up playing more minutes than Kidd, particularly if Team USA builds big leads, but I would be surprised if Coach Krzyzewski changes his starting lineup.
The main early criticism of the 2008 roster is the supposed lack of big men but I disagree with that assessment. Chandler hardly played at all in the 2007 FIBA Americas tournament and although Stoudemire rebounded well he was not much of a defensive presence (six blocked shots in 10 games). Boozer and Bosh should be more than able to replace them, so this team is deeper and more versatile up front than the 2007 squad. Furthermore, the most effective style of play for Team USA in FIBA events is to go small, play pressure defense, force turnovers and score in the open court. Carmelo Anthony and LeBron James can easily play power forward in such a lineup, so on this team they are essentially "bigs" also. As for the perimeter players, Billups and Miller were two of the least productive members of the 2007 team, so it is difficult to believe that there will be any drop off by replacing them with Paul and Wade.
Thus, the 2008 team should be even better than the 2007 squad, though it is also true that the competition at the Olympics will be much tougher than the competition at the FIBA Americas tournament.
Anthony will almost certainly be Team USA's leading scorer. He feeds off of the open court scoring opportunities provided by the pressure defense of Bryant, Kidd and James and he is also a tough cover in the half court for most FIBA forwards. If anything, Anthony plays even worse defense in FIBA competition than he does in the NBA but he is such an efficient scorer--and the other four starters defend so well--that his offensive output outweighs his defensive liabilities (which was not the case in the 2004 Olympics, when Bryant and Kidd were not on the team and James did not defend nearly as well as he does now).
Some quotes from Anthony and Wade give an indication of why they failed to lead the 2004 and 2006 teams to gold medals. Anthony said that he joined the 2004 team expecting to have "some of the best workouts in the summertime with the best players in the world" and he assumed "the USA is supposed to win everything." Wade candidly admitted that being an Olympian had never been a dream of his, adding, "I didn't have a clue what I was getting into...Now, we respect the game so much. We respect the team basketball that they play internationally so much." You don't have to read too far between the lines to understand that in 2004 Anthony and Wade underestimated the competition that they faced and did not realize how much hard work and intensity would be necessary to win the gold medal. Now, they know better and the team has a much better leadership structure--with Bryant and Kidd on board no one will be taking any shortcuts in practice or at the defensive end of the court (well, Anthony probably will still take some shortcuts there but the team can survive that as long as he keeps shooting over .600 from the field).
The prevailing myth about Team USA's failure to win gold medals in the 2002 FIBA World Championship, the 2004 Olympics and the 2006 FIBA World Championship is that a lack of outside shooters proved to be fatal. However, as I demonstrated in a September 4, 2007 post titled
The Real Story Behind Team USA's Losses in Previous FIBA Events, what really killed those teams was poor defense, particularly regarding the short three point shot (20'6" as opposed to 23'9" in the NBA) that FIBA teams love to launch. It is absolutely vital that Team USA shut down the three point shooters on opposing teams and that they do so without leaving the lane open to cutters; shooting well from the three point line would certainly be a nice bonus but perimeter defense will be the linchpin of Team USA's success. Good perimeter defense will fuel transition offense that will result in open three pointers and fast break dunks; the gaudy field goal percentage posted by Team USA in 2007 was largely the result of great defense leading to high percentage scoring opportunities in transition.
Labels: Carlos Boozer, Carmelo Anthony, Chris Bosh, Chris Paul, Deron Williams, Dwight Howard, Dwyane Wade, Jason Kidd, Kobe Bryant, LeBron James, Michael Redd, Tayshaun Prince
posted by David Friedman @ 4:28 AM
Defense, Bench Play and a Late Surge From Kobe Lift Lakers Over Pistons
So much for being distracted; so much for not having a good supporting cast. All is well, at least for the moment, for Kobe Bryant and the L.A. Lakers, who improved to 5-3 with a 103-91 victory over the Detroit Pistons, who were without the services of injured starters Chauncey Billups and Antonio McDyess. In addition to Detroit, the Lakers have recently beaten three other teams that most observers consider to be serious contenders:
Houston,
Phoenix, and Utah. Kobe Bryant had a poor shooting night but every other facet of his game was on point. "Kobe in the end has to score the basketball but he can be just as deadly when he passes it," ESPN's Jon Barry noted early in the game, pointing out that when Bryant has the ball the entire defense focuses its attention on him, creating open scoring opportunities for other players. Sure enough, the Lakers followed Barry's script to perfection: Bryant had no points and three assists in the first quarter as the Lakers took a 29-20 lead; in the fourth quarter, with the game in the balance, Bryant had 11 points on 4-4 shooting. He finished with 19 points on 6-18 shooting, seven assists and four rebounds. Bryant also played outstanding defense, a trait that seems to be rubbing off on his teammates as the Lakers had 13 steals and many deflections. Lamar Odom posted a double double (25 points and a game-high 15 rebounds) and Andrew Bynum headlined an outstanding effort by the bench, contributing 12 points and seven rebounds. Richard Hamilton and Tayshaun Prince led Detroit with 16 points each.
Detroit fought back to tie the game near the end of the second quarter and only trailed 48-46 at halftime. The third quarter was tightly contested most of the way but Detroit used an 8-2 run in the last 3:00 to go up 68-62 heading into the fourth quarter. The Lakers scored six straight points in the first 1:31 of the fourth quarter to tie the score and soon built a small lead on the strength of several steals that they converted into fast break points. Bryant's scoring burst began with a three pointer at the 5:37 mark that put the Lakers ahead 83-76. Detroit answered with a Rasheed Wallace three pointer and a Hamilton jumper. On the Lakers' next possession they ran the Triangle Offense to perfection as Jordan Farmar fed the ball to Bynum in the post, who then delivered a slick bounce pass to a cutting Bryant for a layup; back in the Chicago Bulls' glory days when they ran the Triangle majestically, Scottie Pippen used to get at least one layup a game using that baseline cut and receiving a pass from Luc Longley, Will Perdue or Bill Wennington. Bryant drew Hamilton's fifth foul on the play and he made the free throw to put L.A. up 86-81. A bit later, Bryant drove to the hoop and kicked the ball to Farmar, whose three pointer made the score 93-83. On the next possession, Farmar returned the favor, passing to Bryant for a three pointer. After Bryant fed Odom for yet another three pointer, the Lakers led 99-85. Not to harp on something that I've mentioned here a few times recently, but those plays by Bryant, Farmar and Odom are just as "clutch"--if not more so--then a desperation shot that someone makes with less than five seconds left in the game; these are winning plays made at a crucial time in the game when Detroit could have otherwise stayed within striking distance.
During the game, Barry listed what he called the five "pure, best talented players--more talented than anyone else in the league": Kobe Bryant, Tim Duncan, Dwyane Wade, Kevin Garnett, LeBron James. Mike Breen noted that the past three MVPs--Steve Nash (two) and Dirk Nowitzki--did not make the cut for Barry, yet later agreed with Barry's contention that the aforementioned quintet probably comprises the five most talented players in the NBA. "Talent" is a rather nebulous thing to define: does it refer to athletic ability, fundamental basketball skills or something else? I've always thought that it was silly when people tried to say that Larry Bird lacked athleticism or "talent"; how can it be said that a 6-9 player with superb hand-eye coordination and almost unlimited shooting range lacks "talent"? Bird blocked more shots than many of the game's celebrated leapers (including Clyde Drexler and Dominique Wilkins) and he did not do that merely by outsmarting people; Bird possessed good size and was a decent vertical jumper, particularly early in his career--he never displayed the ability to broad jump, to fly from the free throw line and dunk, but he certainly was more than capable of playing the game above the rim. Nowadays, people similarly try to dismiss Nash's athletic ability--but there is a lot more to athletic ability than just broad jumping or vertical jumping; Nash is very quick and like Bird he possesses great hand-eye coordination and excellent shooting range. Nowitzki is a seven footer who runs the court like a guard and also has tremendous shooting range. He's not athletic? Bird, Nash and Nowitzki are not "talented"? Obviously, the way that athleticism and talent are defined has a heavily racial component to it but the reality is that the NBA's white superstars are more athletic than they are given credit for being and the NBA's black superstars are more fundamentally sound and more well schooled from a technical standpoint than is sometimes suggested.
Rather than ranking players based on talent or athleticism it makes more sense to rank them the way a scout would: how fundamentally sound are they in all aspects of the game and how much of a challenge do they present to the opposing team at both ends of the court? By that standard, Bryant is the league's best player because he has no serious weaknesses offensively or defensively. LeBron James and Tim Duncan--who both struggle from the free throw line--are right behind him (James also needs to show more consistency on defense). One could make a case that Garnett has been the best player in the NBA early in this season but he still lacks a go-to move on the block and has been known to fade--literally and figuratively--in critical situations; for those reasons I would not yet place him above the first three players who I listed. Obviously, if Boston wins 55-60 games or more then Garnett will be a landslide MVP award winner unless Bryant or James do something truly spectacular (Duncan no longer plays enough minutes to put up the stats that wow MVP voters). As for Wade, I would give him an incomplete because we have not seen much of him in the past six months or so; unless he improved his outside shooting and his defense during his rehabilitation period I would not put him ahead of Bryant, Duncan or James. Nowitzki was a worthy MVP choice last year--though I would have voted for Bryant--but his production is not at the same level so far this year; defense is his main weakness. As for Nash, I rate him and Jason Kidd neck and neck as the best point guards but neither one is the best or the most valuable player in the NBA; Kidd's flaw is his shooting, while Nash's flaw is his defense.
Labels: Andrew Bynum, Detroit Pistons, Jordan Farmar, Kobe Bryant, L.A. Lakers, Lamar Odom, Richard Hamilton, Tayshaun Prince
posted by David Friedman @ 2:54 AM
