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Oklahoma City Versus San Antonio Preview

Western Conference Finals

#1 Oklahoma City (64-18) vs. #2 San Antonio (62-20) 

Season series: San Antonio, 4-1 

San Antonio can win if…Victor Wembanyama dominates the paint at both ends of the court while the Spurs' backcourt troika of Stephon Castle, De'Aaron Fox, and Dylan Harper keeps pace with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and the Thunder's deep rotation of perimeter players. The Spurs won the regular season series 4-1 by controlling the paint and by not letting the Thunder dominate the possession game; the Thunder typically thrive when they force a lot of turnovers while minimizing their own turnovers.

Wembanyama's debut playoff run has been very productive so far; he has averaged a team-high 20.3 ppg, a team-high 10.7 rpg, and a league-leading 4.1 bpg in 10 games. He missed game three in the first round versus Portland while he was in concussion protocol, and he ranks just fourth on the team in playoff mpg (28.8) as the Spurs do everything possible to keep him healthy and fresh. 

Wembanyama averaged 19.8 ppg while leading the Spurs in rebounding (12.0 rpg) and blocked shots (4.2 bpg) as the Spurs eliminated the Minnesota Timberwolves 4-2 in the second round, ending the Timberwolves' bid to make a third straight appearance in the Western Conference Finals. Wembanyama had a slow offensive start to the series in San Antonio's 104-102 game one loss (11 points on 5-17 field goal shooting) but he also snared a game-high 15 rebounds and set an NBA single game playoff record with 12 blocked shots, surpassing the previous mark (10) held by three players (Mark Eaton, Hakeem Olajuwon, and Andrew Bynum) for a statistic that the NBA has tracked since the 1973-74 season (which means that the numbers for Bill Russell, Wilt Chamberlain, and a young Kareem Abdul-Jabbar are not known). The Spurs then won two straight games with Wembanyama leading the way, notching 19 points, a game-high 15 rebounds, and two blocked shots in San Antonio's 133-95 game two rout before exploding for 39 points, 15 rebounds, and five blocked shots in San Antonio's 115-108 game three victory. Wembanyama was ejected for elbowing Naz Reid in the head after playing less than 13 minutes in game four, and the Spurs lost 114-109. Wembanyama bounced back with 19 points, a game-high 17 rebounds, and a game-high three blocked shots in the Spurs' 126-97 game five win at home, and then he had 19 points, six rebounds, and a game-high three blocked shots as the Spurs closed out the series with a 139-109 rout on the road.

Castle ranks second on the team in playoff scoring (19.9 ppg), first in playoff assists (6.1 apg), and second in three point field goals made (22). Fox is third on the team in playoff scoring (18.8 ppg) and second in assists (5.8 apg). Harper is fourth on the team in playoff scoring (13.7 ppg) and third in rebounds (5.1 rpg). Their numbers are not overwhelming individually, but collectively they put a lot of pressure on opponents in multiple ways, and they make it difficult for opponents to load up on Wembanyama.

Oklahoma City will win because…the Thunder are more consistent and more efficient. The Spurs' regular season dominance of the Thunder should not be dismissed, and it could be argued that the Spurs are a better team now than they were even just a few months ago, but the Thunder have proven over the past two seasons that they are capable of rising to the occasion when it matters most.

The Thunder are the only team to sweep the first two rounds of the 2026 playoffs, and they are the first reigning NBA champion to sweep the first two rounds since the 2001 Lakers accomplished this during the second championship run of their 2000-02 "three-peat."

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander did not perform up to his high standards during the Thunder's 4-0 second round sweep of the L.A. Lakers, but he still led both teams in scoring (24.5 ppg) while pacing the Thunder in assists (6.0 apg). Overall, Gilgeous-Alexander is leading the Thunder in playoff scoring (29.1 ppg) and assists (7.1 apg) with shooting splits of .514/.323/.855. He is the 2026 playoff leader in two point field goals made per game and free throws made per game.

The Thunder have rolled even though their second best player, 2025 All-Star Jalen Williams, has only played in two of their eight playoff games, averaging 20.5 ppg on .615 field goal shooting. Williams has been out of action with a grade 1 left hamstring strain since suffering the injury on April 22 in the Thunder's 120-107 game two win versus Phoenix in the first round.

Willaims' absence has given Ajay Mitchell a chance to shine. Mitchell is averaging 18.8 ppg in eight playoff games with six starts after averaging 13.6 ppg in 57 regular season games with 16 starts. 

Chet Holmgren (18.6 ppg, team-high 9.1 rpg, team-high 1.8 bpg) and Isaish Hartenstein (9.9 ppg, 8.8 rpg, team-high .756 FG%) control the paint at both ends of the court. There is no love lost between Wembanyama and Holmgren, so that will be a fun--and critical--matchup to watch.

Alex Caruso (7.6 ppg, 1.5 spg), Cason Wallace (7.3 ppg, team-high 1.8 spg), Philadelphia cast-off Jared McCain (7.3 ppg), and Isaiah Joe (6.6 ppg) anchor a deep, versatile bench.

Other things to consider: In The Glitch in "The Process" is a Feature, not a Bug, I discussed how the Thunder assembled their championship-winning roster:

Here is how the Thunder acquired their top nine players in regular season mpg from their 2025 championship season: 

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander--the NBA's reigning regular season MVP, Magic Johnson Western Conference Finals MVP, and Bill Russell NBA Finals MVP--is the Thunder's franchise player. The Thunder obtained Gilgeous-Alexander and the draft pick that became All-Star Jalen Williams (their second best player) by trading Paul George to the L.A. Clippers. Morey's 76ers later signed Paul George after the Clippers wisely decided to not give George a maximum contract extension. 

The Thunder used a first round draft pick obtained by tanking to select Chet Holmgren. 

Lu Dort was not drafted, Isaiah Hartenstein was a free agent, Cason Wallace was acquired in a trade, Aaron Wiggins was a second round draft pick, Isaiah Joe was a free agent who had been waived by the 76ers, and Alex Caruso was acquired in a trade that sent Josh Giddey from the Thunder to the Chicago Bulls. The Thunder had selected Giddey with a first round pick obtained by tanking, but after they determined that Giddey was not the best fit with the rest of their roster they shrewdly shipped him out to obtain a proven championship-winning veteran who is a great leader and great defensive player.

Thunder general manager Sam Presti cut his NBA teeth with the San Antonio Spurs before the Thunder hired him. Knicks coach Mike Brown is also a product of the Spurs' system. I interviewed Brown during his first stint with the Cleveland Cavaliers, and he told me that he takes after his mentor Gregg Popovich in terms of not being a big numbers guy. When I asked Brown what statistics he values, he mentioned defensive field goal percentage and points allowed but not any of the "advanced basketball statistics" that are so in vogue in some quarters and that are so heavily valued by people like Hinkie and Morey. During their 2025 championship season, the Thunder ranked first in defensive field goal percentage and third in points allowed; they ranked first and second respectively in those categories this season. 

As I noted in my 2025 Western Conference Finals Preview, tanking is not why the Thunder are winning, and the Thunder's success should not be considered a justification of tanking "because tanking cheats paying fans while demeaning and diminishing the value of competition. The NBA was much better when load management and tanking did not exist."

The Spurs' roster construction seems less pure. From the outside looking in, it appears that the Spurs tanked to get Wembanyama and then were either very poorly coached during Wembanyama's first season or else tanked again to obtain Castle's draft rights. It is interesting that, in contrast to several teams that admit to tanking (the 76ers being the most obvious example), then-Spurs' coach Gregg Popovich explicitly denied that the Spurs were losing on purpose or would ever lose on purpose. Regardless of what the Spurs did or did not do to obtain Wembanyama, they are so fortunate that Wembanyama is 100% committed to playing selfless, winning basketball as opposed to focusing on individual glory. Wembanyama looks like a player who is capable of leading a team to a championship--but the Thunder have already won a championship with Gilgeous-Alexander leading a talented, deep, and selfless roster. The Spurs more than had the measure of the Thunder during the regular season, but playoff basketball is contested at a different intensity level than regular season basketball. It would not be shocking if the Spurs win this series, but I think that they are still at least a year away from winning the Western Conference Finals.

Oklahoma City will defeat San Antonio in six games.

Labels: Ajay Mitchell, Chet Holmgren, De'Aaron Fox, Dylan Harper, Jalen Williams, Oklahoma City Thunder, San Antonio Spurs, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Stephon Castle, Victor Wembanyama

posted by David Friedman @ 8:21 AM

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The Glitch in "The Process" is a Feature, not a Bug

The New York Knicks swept the Philadelphia 76ers 4-0 to reach the Eastern Conference Finals for the second consecutive season. The last time the Knicks made it to the Eastern Conference Finals two years in a row was 1999-2000, and in my Eastern Conference Finals Preview I will analyze the Knicks in depth, but this article will focus on the 76ers. Before the playoffs began, some commentators dubbed the 76ers as a "team nobody wants to face," a designation often attached to teams that subsequently lose ignominiously in the playoffs.

The 76ers have been "next year's champion" for many years. How did they become a highly touted team that annually falls well short of championship expectations? The 76ers tanked from 2013 to 2016, winning less than 20 games in each of those three seasons. Sam Hinkie, the 76ers' general manager during those awful seasons, arrogantly called the intentional losing "The Process." Author Yaron Weitzman wrote a book about "The Process" called  "Tanking to the Top," but the 76ers did nothing of the sort: two years before Hinkie began "The Process," the 76ers lost in the second round of the 2012 playoffs--and the 76ers have not advanced beyond the second round of the playoffs since that time. The 76ers are the most prominent example of a proven fact: tanking does not work. 

The 76ers never reached the playoffs under Hinkie, who was finally replaced by Bryan Colangelo in 2016. Colangelo ended the tanking, and the 76ers went 28-54 in his first season before jumping to 52-30 in his second season. Colangelo resigned after that season, and he was replaced by Elton Brand. The 76ers went 51-31 and 43-30 in two years under Brand before the 76ers replaced him with Daryl Morey, who previously enjoyed an extended run in Houston despite not producing exceptional results. Like Hinkie, Morey relies heavily on "advanced basketball statistics," which results in Morey believing bizarre things such as publicly declaring that James Harden is a better scorer than Michael Jordan. 

Morey doubled down on Hinkie's faith in Joel Embiid--who dubbed himself "The Process" in honor of Hinkie--by signing the oft-injured Embiid to a three year maximum contract extension in October 2024. There are 14 NBA players being paid at least $50 million this season. Only four of them have not won an NBA title, and two of those four play for the 76ers. Joel Embiid is the NBA's third highest paid player ($55.2 million), and Paul George is the NBA's 13th highest paid player ($51.67 million). Morey's decisions have resulted in the 76ers paying over $100 million this season to two players who have failed to lead the team past the second round. One of the few positive things that can be said about Morey's reign of error in Philadelphia is that he drafted Tyrese Maxey in 2020. Maxey has become the 76ers' best and most consistent player, but it is not clear if Maxey can be the number one option on a team that makes an extended playoff run.

It is fascinating to contrast the dysfunctional 76ers with the Oklahoma City Thunder, the reigning NBA champions and the league's model franchise. I previously discussed in brief how the Thunder built their roster through wise personnel moves and not by tanking (even though it is true that they tanked for a couple seasons), but with the Thunder rolling while the 76ers are reeling it is worth examining in detail how the Thunder put together their deep roster.

Here is how the Thunder acquired their top nine players in regular season mpg from their 2025 championship season: 

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander--the NBA's reigning regular season MVP, Magic Johnson Western Conference Finals MVP, and Bill Russell NBA Finals MVP--is the Thunder's franchise player. The Thunder obtained Gilgeous-Alexander and the draft pick that became All-Star Jalen Williams (their second best player) by trading Paul George to the L.A. Clippers. Morey's 76ers later signed Paul George after the Clippers wisely decided to not give George a maximum contract extension. 

The Thunder used a first round draft pick obtained by tanking to select Chet Holmgren. 

Lu Dort was not drafted, Isaiah Hartenstein was a free agent, Cason Wallace was acquired in a trade, Aaron Wiggins was a second round draft pick, Isaiah Joe was a free agent who had been waived by the 76ers, and Alex Caruso was acquired in a trade that sent Josh Giddey from the Thunder to the Chicago Bulls. The Thunder had selected Giddey with a first round pick obtained by tanking, but after they determined that Giddey was not the best fit with the rest of their roster they shrewdly shipped him out to obtain a proven championship-winning veteran who is a great leader and great defensive player.

Thunder general manager Sam Presti cut his NBA teeth with the San Antonio Spurs before the Thunder hired him. Knicks coach Mike Brown is also a product of the Spurs' system. I interviewed Brown during his first stint with the Cleveland Cavaliers, and he told me that he takes after his mentor Gregg Popovich in terms of not being a big numbers guy. When I asked Brown what statistics he values, he mentioned defensive field goal percentage and points allowed but not any of the "advanced basketball statistics" that are so in vogue in some quarters and that are so heavily valued by people like Hinkie and Morey. During their 2025 championship season, the Thunder ranked first in defensive field goal percentage and third in points allowed; they ranked first and second respectively in those categories this season. 

Numbers matter, but anyone who thinks that the numbers point to tanking as an effective strategy does not understand numbers, basketball, strategy, or team building. It is not an accident that the Thunder are winning while the 76ers are sputtering; those disparate outcomes result from one team consistently making sound strategic decisions and the other team consistently making unsound strategic decisions. It is quite telling that the Thunder began their current rise by getting rid of Paul George, a player who Morey's 76ers acquired (and then overpaid) because they believe that he can be a cornerstone player on a championship team.

Labels: Chet Holmgren, Daryl Morey, Jalen Williams, Joel Embiid, New York Knicks, Oklahoma City Thunder, Paul George, Philadelphia 76ers, Sam Hinkie, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Tyrese Maxey

posted by David Friedman @ 10:59 PM

2 comments

Oklahoma City Versus L.A. Lakers Preview

Western Conference Second Round

#1 Oklahoma City (64-18) vs. #4 L.A. Lakers (53-29) 

Season series: Oklahoma City, 4-0 

L.A. can win if…the Lakers win the possession game by cutting down on turnovers and by outrebounding the Thunder. The Lakers rank 15th out of the 16 playoff teams in turnovers committed, while the Thunder rank first, and the Thunder also rank first in turnover differential; the Thunder excel at both taking the ball away on defense (ranking third in the playoffs in steals per game) and protecting the ball on offense, while the Lakers do not protect the ball well and are mediocre at best at taking the ball away (ranking ninth in steals per game). The Thunder rank fifth in the playoffs in rebounding differential (3.8), while the Lakers rank eighth (0.0). If the Lakers do not significantly improve in the possession game then they will have to shoot an extraordinarily high percentage from the field or make a lot of free throws just to keep the games close.

The Lakers were correctly considered underdogs in the first round versus the fifth seeded Houston Rockets because injuries kept Luka Doncic out for the entire series (grade 2 left hamstring strain) and sidelined Austin Reaves until game five (grade 2 oblique strain)--but that was before Kevin Durant was a late scratch for game one with a right knee contusion. Durant, who averaged 26.0 ppg on .520 field goal shooting in 78 regular season games, played in just one game as the Lakers eliminated the Rockets in six games; he scored 23 points on 7-12 field goal shooting in game two, which the Lakers won, 101-94, as the other Rockets scored 71 points on 29-77 (.377) field goal shooting. Durant sprained his ankle during game two and did not play again in the series, so it is not surprising that the Rockets rank 15th in playoff scoring (98.7 ppg), ahead of only the Orlando Magic--who should be called the -rland- Magic (i.e., they have no "O") after averaging 98.3 ppg, including scoring just 19 points in the second half of their 93-79 game six loss to the Detroit Pistons while missing 27 of their final 28 field goal attempts. Only Orlando's record-setting offensive futility kept the Rockets from having the least productive offense in the 2026 NBA playoffs.

While it is fair to say to some extent that the bricklaying Rockets were the architects of their own demise, the Lakers deserve some credit, too, starting with LeBron James. It is not hyperbole to say that James is the greatest 41 year old NBA player ever. He averaged 20.9 ppg, 7.2 apg, and 6.1 rpg during the regular season, and his only concession to age is that he missed 22 games. James improved those numbers to 23.2 ppg, 8.3 apg, and 7.2 rpg versus the Rockets, leading the Lakers in scoring and assists while ranking second in rebounding. 

Reaves averaged 18.5 ppg and 4.0 apg in two games, but he shot just .367 from the field. Rui Hachimura increased his scoring from 11.5 ppg in the regular season to 15.8 ppg versus the Rockets, and he led the Lakers with 17 three point field goals while shooting .586 from beyond the arc. Deandre Ayton grumbled about his role during the season, averaging 12.5 ppg and a team-high 8.0 rpg, and he posted similar numbers versus the Rockets (11.8 ppg, team-high 10.8 rpg). Marcus Smart (14.7 ppg, 13 three point field goals made, .486 3FG%) was a key contributor at both ends of the court versus the Rockets after scoring just 9.3 ppg with a .331 3FG% during the regular season.

Oklahoma City will win because...Shai Gilgeous-Alexander will be the best player in the series and because the Thunder's depth and defensive tenacity will overwhelm the Lakers.

Gilgeous-Alexander averaged 33.8 ppg, 8.0 apg, and 3.8 rpg with shooting splits of .551/.313/.898 during the first round as the Thunder swept the Phoenix Suns. Chet Holmgren averaged 17.3 ppg, a team-high 8.5 rpg, and a team-high 2.0 bpg versus the Suns. Isaiah Hartenstein provided power in the paint with 11.0 ppg, 8.3 rpg, 1.0 bpg, and a team-high .714 FG%. Jalen Williams averaged 20.5 ppg, 5.0 apg, and 4.0 rpg in two games versus the Suns but will miss at least the start of this series due to a grade 1 left hamstring strain. Ajay Mitchell picked up some of the scoring slack by averaging 15.0 ppg, but he shot just .364 from the field.

The Thunder are the highest scoring team in the playoffs (122.8 ppg), and their 17.3 ppg scoring differential is second behind the Knicks (17.5 ppg), whose numbers are a bit distorted by their historic 140-89 game six rout of the Atlanta Hawks. The Thunder also rank second in the playoffs behind the Knicks in field goal percentage (.487).

Neither the offense that the Lakers ran against the Rockets nor the defense that they played against the Rockets will be nearly good enough to contend with the Thunder.  

Other things to consider: The Thunder have been the class of the NBA for the past two years, posting the best regular season record in back to back seasons and capturing the NBA title last season. Although the Thunder were pushed to seven games in two of their four playoff series last year, they did not falter under pressure and became the second youngest team to win an NBA title.

Gilgeous-Alexander swept the MVP awards last season (regular season, Western Conference Finals, NBA Finals), and he could very well match that feat this season. 

In contrast, this is just the second time that the Lakers advanced past the first round since 2020, when they won the "bubble title." The Lakers spent most of this season relying on their high octane offense fueled by the scoring/playmaking prowess of Doncic, Reaves, and James--who for the first time in his career willingly accepted not just a secondary role but a tertiary role. Without Doncic and with Reaves limited, the Lakers relied on James to run the offense; the Lakers fell from 116.3 ppg on a league-leading .502 field goal percentage in the regular season to 101.2 ppg on .474 field goal shooting versus the Durant-less and offensively challenged Rockets, but the Thunder both score and defend much better than the Rockets. If Doncic were available and at full strength, maybe the Lakers could steal a game or two, but this version of the Lakers cannot keep pace with the Thunder, even if Jalen Williams does not play.

Oklahoma City will defeat L.A. in four games.

Labels: Austin Reaves, Chet Holmgren, Jalen Williams, L.A. Lakers, LeBron James, Luka Doncic, Oklahoma City Thunder, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

posted by David Friedman @ 12:39 AM

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Thunder Outlast Pacers to Win Game Seven, 103-91

The Oklahoma City Thunder outscored the Indiana Pacers 56-43 in the second half, transforming a one point halftime deficit into a 103-91 game seven win to capture the NBA championship. The Pacers outrebounded the Thunder 45-40 and shot slightly more efficiently from the field, but the Thunder attacked Pacers' ballhandlers on the perimeter and took advantage of extra possessions by scoring in the paint; the Thunder forced 23 turnovers that they converted into 32 points while committing just eight turnovers that the Pacers converted into 10 points, and the Thunder outscored the Pacers in the paint, 40-26.

As is often the case in game seven showdowns, two high octane offenses struggled to score efficiently. The Thunder averaged 120.5 ppg in the regular season while posting a 68-14 record with the best point differential in NBA history (12.9 ppg), but in game seven they barely cracked the 100 point barrier while shooting 35-87 (.402) from the field, including 11-40 (.275) from three point range; the Pacers averaged 117.4 ppg in the regular season while ranking third in field goal percentage (.488), but in game seven they fell well short of 100 points while shooting 29-70 (.414) from the field, including 11-28 (.393) from beyond the arc. 

Three point shooting is supposed to be of paramount importance in today's NBA, but the Thunder took the title despite shooting 71-206 (.345) from three point range in the NBA Finals. Defense, rebounding, and paint presence are often the most important factors in game seven, which is why the 1998 Chicago Bulls beat the Indiana Pacers in game seven of the Eastern Conference Finals despite Michael Jordan shooting 9-25 from the field and why the 2010 L.A. Lakers beat the Boston Celtics in game seven of the NBA Finals despite Kobe Bryant shooting 6-24 from the field. A team that defends well and plays hard can survive a poor individual shooting performance by a star.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander scored a game-high 29 points, dished for a game-high/playoff career-high 12 assists, grabbed five rebounds, blocked two shots, and had just one turnover. He shot 8-27 from the field, but his scoring and playmaking accounted for more than half of the Thunder's points. By continuing to shoot even though his field goal percentage was not great, Gilgeous-Alexander put pressure on the Pacers' defense; the worst thing for a team in a big game is not when the team's star shoots 8-27, but rather when he shoots 4-14, because a passive star player is much easier to guard than an active star player: when a star player aggressively attacks the defense that forces the defense to react by sending help, which opens up scoring opportunities and offensive rebounding opportunities for the star's teammates, secondary but important effects that are not tracked well or even understood by many "stat gurus" who focus on what they define as "efficiency" without giving sufficient consideration to other factors. 

During the NBA Finals, Gilgeous-Alexander averaged 30.3 ppg, 4.6 rpg, 5.6 apg, 1.9 spg, and 1.6 bpg with shooting splits of .443/.242/.914, earning the Bill Russell NBA Finals MVP and becoming the first player to win the scoring title, regular season MVP, and NBA Finals MVP in the same season since Shaquille O'Neal (2000). He is just the fourth player in NBA history to win the scoring title, regular season MVP, and the championship in the same season, joining Kareem Abdul-Jabbar (1971), Michael Jordan (1991-92, 1996, 1998), and Shaquille O'Neal (2000).

Jalen Williams shot poorly from the field (7-20), but he made critical contributions with 20 points, four rebounds, four assists, two steals, and just one turnover. He had a game-best +13 plus/minus number. Chet Holmgren anchored the defense in the paint, setting an NBA Finals game seven record with five blocked shots while also scoring 18 points on 6-8 field goal shooting and grabbing eight rebounds. The Thunder improved to 3-1 in this series with Isaiah Hartenstein in the starting lineup; he had seven points, a team-high nine rebounds, and four assists. Gilgeous-Alexander, Williams, and Hartenstein were the only three Thunder players who had an assist. Alex Caruso and Cason Wallace each scored 10 points off of the bench.

The biggest story for the Pacers was that Tyrese Haliburton, the team's primary playmaker and clutch shot maker, fell to the court with a non-contact lower right leg injury at the 4:55 mark of the first quarter and was unable to play the rest of the way. He had already scored nine points on 3-5 field goal shooting, and even though the Thunder led 18-16 when Haliburton left the game it is fair to wonder how the game might have proceeded if Haliburton had stayed healthy. Haliburton's injury not only impacted game seven and this series but it could have implications for the balance of power in the Eastern Conference if he misses most or all of next season.

Bennedict Mathurin stepped up in Haliburton's absence, scoring a team-high 24 points and grabbing a game-high 13 rebounds in 33 minutes off of the bench. Pascal Siakam added 16 points but shot just 5-13 from the field. T.J. McConnell contributed 16 points on 8-13 field goal shooting in 28 minutes off of the bench, but he also had a game-high seven turnovers; he scored 12 points on 6-7 field goal shooting in eight minutes in the third quarter, but had just four points on 2-6 field goal shooting in his other 20 minutes of action, which highlights a point that I made in my game five recap: just because a bench player has a brief productive stretch that does not mean that if his playing time is extended he will continue to score at that same per minute rate; there are reasons that bench players are bench players and starters are starters, including conditioning, and ability to match up with various players/defensive schemes.

The Pacers took an 11-6 lead to start the game in a closely contested first quarter featuring three lead changes and four ties with neither team leading by more than five points. After Haliburton's injury, the Pacers seemed to be inspired while the Thunder seemed to be complacent and tentative. The Pacers outscored the Thunder 26-22 in the second quarter to build a slim 48-47 halftime edge as the Thunder shot 4-18 (.222) from three point range in the first half.

In the third quarter, the Thunder ramped up the defensive pressure--forcing eight turnovers that they converted into 18 points--while not committing a single turnover, and shooting a respectable 5-13 (.385) from beyond the arc. The Pacers were still behind by just four points, 70-66, at the 3:54 mark of the third quarter, but the Thunder closed that stanza with an 11-2 run to enter the fourth quarter with an 81-68 lead. McConnell scored the Pacers' final 12 third quarter points, but down the stretch in the third quarter it became evident that the Pacers could not deal with the Thunder's defensive pressure.  

The Thunder led by as many as 22 points in the fourth quarter before the Pacers made one final push to slash the margin to 96-86 with 2:16 remaining, but the Thunder went on a 6-1 burst to remove any doubt; the Pacers may be the comeback kings, but the Thunder are a historically dominant team, particularly at home: the Thunder set a single season playoff record with a +259 point differential at home, and their only two home playoff losses--game one of the NBA Finals versus Indiana, and game one in the second round versus Denver--were on buzzer beaters. With this win, the Thunder improved to 19-2 after a loss (regular season and playoffs combined), the best such single season mark in NBA history.

The Thunder went 84-21 overall during the regular season and playoffs combined, tied with the 1996-97 Chicago Bulls (84-17) for the third most wins all-time, trailing only the 2015-16 Golden State Warriors (88-18, but lost in the NBA Finals), and the 1995-96 Chicago Bulls (87-13). It should be noted that the NBA expanded the playoff format in 1983-84 (adding a best of five first round series to the three existing best of seven series) and in 2002-03 (extending the first round from best of five to best of seven), so before those years teams did not have the same opportunities to win 84-plus games. The Thunder are the second youngest team to win an NBA title, trailing only the 1977 Portland Trail Blazers--a squad that provides a cautionary tale, as they never returned to the NBA Finals after injuries ended Bill Walton's brief tenure as the sport's best player. On paper, it looks like the Thunder are well positioned to contend for championships for the next several years, but in practice it is very difficult for a team to win multiple titles; there have been just four repeat champions since the Michael Jordan-Scottie Pippen Chicago Bulls notched a pair of three-peats in the 1990s: the 2000-02 L.A. Lakers, the 2009-10 L.A. Lakers, the 2012-13 Miami Heat, and the 2017-18 Golden State Warriors.

Labels: Bennedict Mathurin, Chet Holmgren, Indiana Pacers, Jalen Williams, Oklahoma City Thunder, Pascal Siakam, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, T.J. McConnell, Tyrese Haliburton

posted by David Friedman @ 10:07 AM

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Pacers Rout Thunder 108-91 to Force a Seventh Game in Oklahoma City

The Indiana Pacers fell behind 10-2 to the Oklahoma City Thunder at home in game six before outscoring the Thunder 62-32 the rest of the first half en route to a dominant 108-91 victory to tie the series at 3-3. The game was not as close as the final score may suggest; the Pacers led by as many as 31 points in the second half, were ahead by 25-plus points for substantial portions of the second half, and their fourth quarter lead did not drop below 20 points until the final 1:18. The Pacers outrebounded the Thunder 46-41, and forced 21 turnovers that they converted into 19 points while only committing 11 turnovers that the Thunder converted into 13 points. Those extra possessions were a major factor in a game during which both teams shot worse than .420 from the field. Another significant factor was that the Pacers shot 15-42 (.357) from three point range while holding the Thunder to 8-30 (.267) three point shooting; the Pacers did not shoot great, but the Thunder's terrible long range shooting was too much to overcome when the Thunder also lost the possession game by a wide margin. 

The Pacers shot 0-8 from the field to start the game, and they shot just 8-25 (.320) from the field in the first quarter, but they already led 28-25 after the first 12 minutes because they launched four more field goal attempts than the Thunder while making five first quarter three pointers and holding the Thunder to just one first quarter three pointer. As is often the case in the NBA, the first quarter set the tone for the game: the Pacers were the aggressors, the Pacers attempted more field goals, and the Pacers made timely three pointers while the Thunder misfired from beyond the arc. 

In today's NBA featuring volume three point shooting and fast-paced play, a 22 point halftime lead is not insurmountable, but what killed the Thunder is that they did not score from the 1:46 mark of the second quarter until 6:57 remained in the third quarter, a nearly seven minute drought during which the Pacers expanded their advantage from 58-42 to 70-42; the Pacers were not burning up the nets by scoring 12 points in seven minutes, but failing to score at all while already trailing by double digits signaled that this was just not the Thunder's night. 

The Pacers are a better and tougher team than I realized. It would have been easy to fold after losing game five in convincing fashion versus a team that is justifiably considered the favorite, but the Pacers showed resolve not seen from some teams that are more highly touted. The balanced Pacers attack featured six double figure scorers who each had between 10 and 20 points. Obi Toppin, the pride of the University of Dayton, led the Pacers with 20 points in 23 minutes off of the bench. He also had six rebounds, a game-high four treys, and two steals. Andrew Nembhard added 17 points, four assists, and three steals. Pascal Siakam had 16 points, a game-high 13 rebounds, and three assists. Tyrese Haliburton did not seem to be unduly hampered by his much-discussed calf injury, finishing with 14 points, five assists, two steals, and just one turnover; he had a game-high +25 plus/minus number, and he made those who suggested that he should be benched look quite foolish. T.J. McConnell provided an important spark off of the bench with 12 points, nine rebounds, a game-high six assists, and a game-high four steals that matched the entire Thunder team's output in a category that they are used to dominating.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander led the Thunder with 21 points on 7-15 field goal shooting. He had four rebounds, two assists, and no steals or blocked shots, a marked contrast with his 31 points, 10 assists, four blocked shots, and two steals in the Thunder's game five win. In game six, Gilgeous-Alexander logged a "Harden" with more turnovers (game-high eight) than field goals made (seven). Jalen Williams followed up his 40 point game five masterpiece with just 16 points in game six. Chet Holmgren had four points on 2-9 field goal shooting, plus six rebounds, no assists, no steals, and no blocked shots. 

If the Thunder lose this series, they will rue falling behind 2-1 after inexplicably putting Cason Wallace in the starting lineup in place of Isaiah Hartenstein during the first three games. The Thunder went 45-8 during the regular season when Hartenstein started, and they went 12-4 in the playoffs with Hartenstein as a starter prior to the NBA Finals; the Thunder are now 2-1 in the NBA Finals with Hartenstein as a starter, and 1-2 when he did not start. The lineup change did not have a discernible impact on game six, but the larger point is that if the Thunder had deployed their regular starting lineup in each of the first five games they may have won the series at home in game five instead of being pushed to a seventh game.

The Thunder's effort level and efficiency from opening tip until final buzzer indicated that their players had the attitude that this was not a must win game because they will have game seven at home. The Thunder are 18-2 after a loss during the regular season and playoffs, so they have good reason to be confident, but Tex Winter often said, "Everything turns on a trifle": in game seven, a turned ankle, a bad call, or a funny bounce of the ball could change the game, the series, and the way that both teams are remembered. Game to game momentum in a series does not exist, because the next game is played in a different arena under different circumstances beginning with a 0-0 score, not a double digit lead for the winner of the previous game--but momentum within a game can exist, and can decide a series in game seven.

However, even though the underdog has a puncher's chance once a series reaches a seventh game, the reality is that the home team wins NBA game sevens over 74% of the time. The Thunder are in control of this series until proven otherwise, and the Thunder have demonstrated that blowout losses do not impact their confidence or their level of play. In the second round, the Thunder lost to the Denver Nuggets 119-107 in game six, and then the Thunder won game seven, 125-93. After taking a 2-0 lead in the Western Conference Finals, the Thunder lost to the Minnesota Timberwolves 143-101, and then the Thunder won the next two games to close out the series. 

The Pacers' dominant win will almost certainly inspire a lot of overreaction, which is a staple of NBA coverage (and sports coverage in general). Regardless of any hype to the contrary, a blowout Thunder win is the most likely game seven outcome, followed by a close Thunder win; a blowout Thunder win may seem unimaginable now in the immediate wake of the Pacers' dominant game six performance, but game six will be a distant memory when the comfortable and confident Thunder race out to an early game seven lead. A close Pacers win is possible but unlikely, and a blowout Pacers win at Oklahoma City is very unlikely barring unusual circumstance (injuries, foul trouble, or early ejections). 

Labels: Indiana Pacers, Jalen Williams, Oklahoma City Thunder, Pascal Siakam, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, T.J. McConnell, Tyrese Haliburton

posted by David Friedman @ 2:05 AM

15 comments

Thunder's One-Two Punch Knocks Out Pacers in Game Five

Jalen Williams scored a playoff career-high 40 points, and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander added 31 points to lead the Oklahoma City Thunder to a 120-109 win versus the Indiana Pacers in game five of the NBA Finals. The Thunder seized a 3-2 advantage, and put the Pacers behind in a series for the first time in the 2025 playoffs. Williams is the third youngest player with three straight 25 point games in the NBA Finals since the 1976 ABA-NBA merger; the only two younger players to accomplish that feat in that time period are Shaquille O'Neal and Kevin Durant. The 24 year old Williams is also the fifth youngest player to score at least 40 points in an NBA Finals game, trailing only Magic Johnson (20 years old in the 1980 NBA Finals), Rick Barry (three times in 1967 as a 23 year old), Russell Westbrook (23 years old in 2012), and Jerry West (23 years old in 1962).

The Thunder's one-two punch is usually Gilgeous-Alexander followed by Williams, but in this game reversing the order proved to be very effective. Williams shot 14-25 from the field while also contributing six rebounds, four assists, and one steal in 35 minutes. He had just one turnover. Gilgeous-Alexander shot 9-21 from the field, dished for a game-high 10 assists, logged a game-high four blocked shots, and swiped two steals in 38 minutes. Gilgeous-Alexander has produced 12 games this postseason with at least 30 points and at least 10 assists, breaking the record of 11 formerly held by Michael Jordan and LeBron James. Gilgeous-Alexander had three turnovers, which is an acceptable number given his high usage as a scorer/playmaker. Williams and Gilgeous-Alexander attacked the paint, and that enabled them to repeatedly draw fouls: Williams shot 9-12 from the free throw line, while Gilgeous-Alexander connected on 13 of his 14 free throw attempts. 

Aaron Wiggins (14 points, five rebounds in 22 minutes off of the bench) and Cason Wallace (11 points, four steals in 17 minutes off of the bench) were the only other Thunder players who scored in double figures, but when the top two players combine for 71 points not much other offensive support is needed. Chet Holmgren scored nine points, grabbed a game-high 11 rebounds, and blocked three shots, so he made a positive impact despite shooting just 4-15 from the field. Lu Dort added nine points, eight rebounds, three assists, and two steals, while Alex Caruso scored just two points on 1-8 field goal shooting but was a defensive menace with four steals and one blocked shot.

Pascal Siakam led the Pacers with 28 points on 9-15 field goal shooting while also snaring six rebounds, dishing for five assists, poaching three steals, and blocking two shots, but he had six of the Pacers' 23 turnovers. T.J. McConnell scored 18 points on 8-14 field goal shooting in 22 minutes off of the bench while also accumulating four rebounds, four assists, and two steals. He had the Pacers' second best plus/minus number (+4), and he had 13 third quarter points as the Pacers outscored the Thunder 34-28 in that stanza to trim the Thunder's 59-45 halftime lead to 87-79. Bennedict Mathurin scored seven points and had a team-high eight rebounds, and he posted the team's best plus/minus number (+6) despite shooting  just 2-11 from the field. Tyrese Haliburton, who has repeatedly saved the Pacers with big shots in clutch moments, had a scoreless first half on 0-5 field goal shooting before finishing with four points on 0-6 field goal shooting, seven rebounds, and a team-high six assists in 34 minutes. He was limited by a right calf injury but--as Pacers' Coach Rick Carlisle correctly noted during his postgame remarks--many players are limited by injuries at this stage of the season. 

The Thunder scored 32 points off of Indiana's turnovers while conceding just nine points from their 11 turnovers, and those extra possessions enabled the Thunder to prevail despite shooting just 40-94 (.426) from the field while also losing the rebounding battle, 50-45. The Pacers led the Thunder in points in the paint (48-42) and second chance points (21-17), but the combination of the Thunder's relentless defensive pressure with the dynamic scoring/playmaking of Williams and Gilgeous-Alexander decided the outcome.

The Thunder led for the final 44:52 of the game, and built the margin to 18 (56-38) at the 2:29 mark of the second quarter. McConnell's fantastic third quarter helped the Pacers to chip away, and the Pacers pulled to within two points (95-93) after Siakam hit a three pointer at the 8:30 mark of the fourth quarter. The Thunder then went on an 18-4 run to seal the game and, most likely, the series; during that crucial stretch, Williams scored eight points and Gilgeous-Alexander scored five points. 

Oklahoma City probably would have already won the series if Thunder Coach Mark Daigenault had not blundered by changing his starting lineup prior to game one, inserting Cason Wallace in place of Isaiah Hartenstein; the Thunder lost that game and trailed 2-1 before Daigneault went back to the starting lineup that posted a 45-8 regular season record and a 12-4 record in the playoffs. The Thunder won game four after putting Hartenstein back in the starting lineup and are now 2-0 in this series with the starting lineup that carried them to most of their wins in the regular season and the playoffs. Hartenstein's game five numbers--four points, eight rebounds, four assists--are not gaudy, but the goal is to win games, not to be "analytically correct." With Hartenstein in the starting lineup, all of the Thunder's players are in their natural and accustomed roles, which enabled the Thunder to not only build a 29-17 first quarter lead but to also withstand the inevitable Indiana comeback. 

Just at it would be wrong to evaluate the Thunder's starting lineup change based solely on the numbers posted by Hartenstein or Wallace outside of the larger context of the team's overall play, it would also be wrong to assert that Carlisle erred by not giving McConnell more minutes at Haliburton's expense in game five. McConnell is a bench player who performs best against bench players while his minutes are maintained within a certain range. Call it the "Trevor Ariza effect." Carlisle explained after game five that he managed McConnell's late game minutes based on McConnell being fatigued and making some errors that seemed to be a result of that fatigue. A "stat guru" might argue that because McConnell scored 18 points in 22 minutes he would have scored 36 points in 44 minutes, but that is not how NBA basketball works; if McConnell had played 22 more minutes it is much more likely that his turnovers and missed field goals would have increased than that his point total would have doubled. 

"Stat gurus" focus too much on per minute and per possession statistics without understanding or acknowledging other factors, and that faulty, limited way of conceptualizing the game leads "stat gurus" to make flawed assertions, such as declaring that Manu Ginobili was just as good as Kobe Bryant, which is demonstrably false for a variety of reasons, including the difference between being a player who logs heavy minutes as the number one option versus being a player who logs limited minutes while often playing against bench players. Understanding that difference is one reason that I correctly predicted that James Harden would not lead a team to the NBA Finals as a number one option even though he was efficient as the third option for the Kevin Durant-Russell Westbrook Thunder team that reached the 2012 NBA Finals. 

Talking about "adjustments" and substitution patterns is one way that commentators attempt to sound well-informed even when they lack foundational knowledge about the NBA game. The reality is that the best "adjustment" is playing harder. Coaches usually have good reasons for their substitution patterns, based on their observations of their players in practices and in games. The Hartenstein-Wallace change is an unusual example of a coach outsmarting himself--probably based on some "stat guru" feeding him nonsense about the supposed advantages of using a small lineup against Indiana--and it is fortunate for the Thunder that Daigenault was not too stubborn to reverse course before the Thunder fell into a 3-1 hole.

Labels: Indiana Pacers, Isaiah Hartenstein, Jalen Williams, Oklahoma City Thunder, Pascal Siakam, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Tyrese Haliburton

posted by David Friedman @ 2:02 PM

9 comments

Grit and Poise: Thunder Outlast Pacers to Reclaim Homecourt Advantage

The Indiana Pacers led the Oklahoma City Thunder 86-76 with less than a minute remaining in the third quarter of game four of the NBA Finals, but the Thunder outscored the Pacers 35-18 the rest of the way--including 12-1 in the final 3:20--to win 111-104 and reclaim homecourt advantage. The series shifts back to Oklahoma City on Monday night tied 2-2 after the Pacers led 1-0 and 2-1. This was the Thunder's second lowest scoring total in a win in the 2025 playoffs; they lost five of their previous six playoff games when they scored less than 112 points, but they are 12-1 in the 2025 playoffs when they score at least 112 points. The Thunder improved to 5-0 following a loss in 2025 playoffs.

The Thunder cruised through most of the 2024-25 regular season and went 12-4 in their first 16 playoff games, but beating the Indiana Pacers in the NBA Finals has been a tough challenge for the Thunder, who displayed a lot of grit and poise to come from behind to win on the road versus a team that has thrived in games that are close late in the fourth quarter.

The Thunder prevailed by outscoring the Pacers 50-36 in the paint after being outscored 50-48 in the paint in their game three loss. The Thunder also outrebounded the Pacers 43-33 while holding the Pacers to 34-80 (.425) field goal shooting. We are often told that range shooting and spreading the floor are essential for teams to be successful in today's NBA, but the Thunder won despite shooting just 3-17 (.176) from three point range because size matters in the NBA, and because controlling the paint is a major factor for a championship contender. 

The biggest change that Thunder Coach Mark Daigneault made--literally and figuratively--was reinserting Isaiah Hartenstein in the starting lineup after replacing him with Cason Wallace in the first three games of this series. The move back to Hartenstein may not have seemed to help the Thunder when the Pacers jumped out to a 24-15 first quarter lead, but going back to the lineup and player rotation that enabled the Thunder to be a dominant team during the regular season and first three rounds of the playoffs paid dividends as the Thunder wore down the Pacers the rest of the way. Wallace's minutes have decreased from 33 in game one to 23 in game two, 24 in game three, and 19 in game four. Hartenstein's minutes have been fairly consistent--17, 22, 18, 21--but the Thunder won the two games when he played at least 20 minutes and lost the two games when he played less than 20 minutes. Daigneault tried to be clever by changing his starting lineup for the first three games and that move backfired, but he deserves credit for recognizing his mistake before it was too late to salvage this series.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander scored a game-high 35 points on 12-24 field goal shooting and 10-10 free throw shooting, including 15 fourth quarter points. He had no assists, but sometimes the most effective way for a team's best player to impact winning is to accept the burden of scoring even when the defense is tilted against him. Instead of insisting on making the "right" play, Gilgeous-Alexander made winning plays by putting the ball in the basket when the game was up for grabs. He has scored 131 points in this series so far, the third most points scored by a player in the first four NBA Finals games of his career, trailing only Rick Barry (165) and Allen Iverson (141). Jalen Williams often initiated the offense while Gilgeous-Alexander played off of the ball, and Williams finished with 27 points, seven rebounds, and three assists. Alex Caruso contributed 20 points and a game-high tying five steals in 30 minutes off of the bench. Chet Holmgren powered his thin frame to 14 points and a game-high 15 rebounds. 

Pascal Siakam led the Pacers with 20 points and a game-high tying five steals while also grabbing eight rebounds, but he shot just 6-15 from the field. Nine Pacers played in this game, and Siakam was one of just three with a positive plus/minus number (+7, best on the Pacers). Tyrese Haliburton scored 18 points and had a game-high seven assists but he also had a game-high five turnovers. Obi Toppin scored 17 points and snared seven rebounds in 29 minutes off of the bench, but he had a game-worst -15 plus/minus number. 

The Thunder became accustomed to easy, pretty wins during their dream regular season and for two of the first three rounds of the playoffs, but the NBA Finals have been a series of battles that are testing--and forging--the championship mettle of both teams. If the Thunder keep Hartenstein in the starting lineup, don't make any silly rotation changes, and use their size to dominate the paint then they have a great chance to prevail in game five to move to within one win of an NBA title.

Labels: Alex Caruso, Cason Wallace, Chet Holmgren, Indiana Pacers, Isaiah Hartenstein, Jalen Williams, Obi Toppin, Oklahoma City Thunder, Pascal Siakam, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Tyrese Haliburton

posted by David Friedman @ 2:09 AM

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Rolling Thunder: Oklahoma City Slows Down Indiana, Ties Series at 1-1

After losing game one of the NBA Finals to the Indiana Pacers in stunning fashion, the Oklahoma City Thunder led game two 26-20 at the end of the first quarter and never trailed the rest of the way en route to a 123-107 victory. The Thunder outrebounded the Pacers 43-35 after being outrebounded 56-39 in game one, but the biggest difference is that the Thunder shot 40-82 (.488) from the field after shooting just 39-98 (.398) from the field in game one. The Thunder outscored the Pacers in each of the first three quarters before losing the fourth quarter 33-30 because of a cosmetic 11-6 run by the Pacers during which the outcome was never in doubt.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander scored a game-high 34 points on 11-21 field goal shooting, he dished for a game-high eight assists, and he had a game-high four steals. Gilgeous-Alexander scored at least 30 points in a home playoff game for the ninth straight time, tying an NBA record set by Wilt Chamberlain from 1961-64. Gilgeous-Alexander is not only an efficient and prolific scorer, but he attracts so much defensive attention that he creates easy scoring opportunities for his teammates. The term "gravity" seemingly has been trademarked only for use in reference to Stephen Curry even though the reality is that great players have tilted the floor/commanded double teams/exerted "gravity" throughout basketball history. Gilgeous-Alexander has scored 72 points in the first two games of his first NBA Finals appearance; in contrast, Curry scored just 45 points in his first two NBA Final games, producing 26 points on 10-20 field goal shooting in a 108-100 overtime win versus Cleveland in the 2015 NBA Finals and then scoring 19 points on 5-23 field goal shooting in a 95-93 overtime loss to Cleveland in that series. Curry's Warriors trailed 2-1 in that series before winning the title in six games as Andre Iguodala earned the Finals MVP. Gilgeous-Alexander is already a more impactful player at both ends of the court than Curry was during his prime, and Gilgeous-Alexander is still improving.

Alex Caruso, known primarily as a defensive stopper, poured in 20 points on 6-11 field goal shooting in 27 minutes off of the bench. Jalen Williams shot poorly from the field (5-14) for the second game in a row, but still finished with 19 points, five rebounds, and five assists. Aaron Wiggins made a big impact with 18 points off of the bench in 21 minutes, logging by far the best/plus minus number (+24) of any player in this game. Chet Holmgren bounced back from a subpar game one performance to finish with 15 points, six rebounds, and one blocked shot.

Replacing Isaiah Hartenstein with Cason Wallace in the starting lineup proved disastrous in game one, but in game two the Thunder played so much better overall that the change had less of an obvious impact; after posting a game-worst -13 plus/minus number in game one, Wallace had a +12 plus/minus number in game two while scoring four points in 23 minutes. Wallace did not light up the scoreboard, but at least he did not torch the Thunder's chances to win. Hartenstein led the Thunder in rebounding (eight) for the second game in a row, he ranked second on the team in assists (four), and he had the Thunder's second best plus/minus number (+17) despite scoring just three points in 22 minutes. Coach Mark Daigneault did not overtly admit that his lineup switch was a mistake by switching back, but in game one Wallace played 33 minutes and Hartenstein played just 17 minutes, compared to 23 and 22 respectively in game two. Look for Hartenstein's minutes to increase and Wallace's minutes to decrease even if Daigneault stubbornly sticks with his changed starting lineup.

Game one hero Tyrese Haliburton scored a team-high 17 points and had a team-high tying six assists, but he also had a game-high five turnovers. Haliburton's scoring total is inflated by his 12 fourth quarter points when the Pacers trailed by at least 15 points during the entire final stanza; he did not have much of an impact during the first three quarters. Six other Pacers scored between 11 points and 16 points. Pascal Siakam shot just 3-11 from the field, finishing with 15 points, a team-high seven rebounds, and four assists. T.J. McConnell had 11 points plus a game-high tying six assists. The Pacers tried to get the job done by committee, but the Thunder not only have a better committee but they also clearly have the best individual player in Gilgeous-Alexander. 

The Pacers own homecourt advantage in this series thanks to their game one win, but the Thunder have beaten the Pacers three of the last four games that they played, and the Thunder have looked like the superior team for the vast majority of time during those four games. As the series shifts venues, there will be different officiating crews and other game to game changes, and the Pacers' bench players will likely perform better than they did in Oklahoma City, but the better team generally prevails in a seven game series and the Thunder have demonstrated that they are the better team.

Some 1-1 series are more "equal" than others; in the 1991 NBA Finals, the Chicago Bulls lost game one to the L.A. Lakers on a last second shot, won game two 107-86, and won the next three games to clinch the first of their six NBA titles. It would not be surprising to see this series follow a similar course.

Labels: Alex Caruso, Indiana Pacers, Jalen Williams, Oklahoma City Thunder, Pascal Siakam, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Tyrese Haliburton

posted by David Friedman @ 11:10 AM

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Never Too Late: Haliburton's Last Second Game Winner Stuns Thunder, Lifts Pacers to 1-0 NBA Finals Lead

The Indiana Pacers did not enjoy the lead once in the first 47:59.7 of game one of the NBA Finals versus the Oklahoma City Thunder--but they very much enjoyed having the lead for the final :00.3 after Tyrese Haliburton drained the game-winning jump shot in a stunning 111-110 victory. This is the fifth time in the 2025 playoffs that the Pacers won after trailing by at least 15 points, and they have accomplished that feat at least once in each of their four playoff series versus Milwaukee, Cleveland (twice), New York, and now Oklahoma City. The Pacers trailed 94-79 at the 9:42 mark of the fourth quarter versus the Thunder, and were still behind 108-99 with 2:52 left in the fourth quarter, but they kept chipping away until Haliburton delivered the dagger after Shai Gilgeous-Alexander missed a shot with 11 seconds remaining that could have given the Thunder a three point cushion.

Six Pacers scored in double figures, including all five starters. The 2025 Larry Bird Eastern Conference Finals MVP Pascal Siakam had a team-high 19 points on 7-15 field goal shooting while grabbing 10 rebounds. Obi Toppin added 17 points off of the bench, and Myles Turner contributed 15 points, nine rebounds, and three blocked shots. Haliburton had 14 points, 10 rebounds, and a game-high tying six assists. Andrew Nembhard scored 14 points while dishing for a game-high tying six assists. Aaron Nesmith made his presence felt with 10 points plus a game-high 12 rebounds. 

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander poured in a game-high 38 points on 14-30 field goal shooting in his first career NBA Finals game. The moment seemed a little big for Jalen Williams, who finished with 17 points on 6-19 field goal shooting. The Thunder forced 25 turnovers and had 14 steals, but they scored just 11 points off of those extra possessions; the Pacers deserve credit for not just giving up after they turned the ball over, but the Thunder also missed a lot of high quality shots from all over the court. 

Even though the Thunder led most of the way, they failed to deliver the killer third quarter blow that is their trademark. Why was this game different? The answer, as is often the case in an NBA game, is found not in the third quarter or even in the fourth quarter, but rather in the first quarter. The Thunder went 12-4 during the 2025 playoffs with a starting lineup of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Lu Dort, Jalen Williams, Chet Holmgren, and Isaiah Hartenstein, and they went 2-0 versus the Pacers in the regular season with that starting lineup--but Coach Mark Daigneault replaced Hartenstein with Cason Wallace in the starting lineup for game one. Wallace finished with six points on 3-9 field goal shooting in 33 minutes, posting a game-worst -13 plus/minus number, while Hartenstein had nine points and a team-high nine rebounds in 17 minutes while notching a +2 plus/minus number. Sometimes the best "adjustment" is to not overthink things but to just stay the course and show confidence that your team's league-leading record is not a fluke; it will be interesting to see if Daigneault concedes his error and reinstates Hartenstein in the starting lineup for game two, or if he doubles down by keeping Wallace in the starting lineup.

The Pacers outrebounded the Thunder 56-39, and the Thunder shot just 39-98 (.398) from the field, so it is evident that going small and changing the rotation backfired in multiple ways: Wallace was not productive as a starter, limiting Hartenstein's minutes hurt the Thunder on the glass, and the Thunder were much less efficient than usual offensively. Players are creatures of habit, so changing the starting lineup can have a downstream effect on the entire roster--not to mention that the favorite team should not show any sign of weakness, including suggesting that their starting lineup is not good enough to beat the opposing team's starting lineup. Daigneault's questionable move is reminiscent of how Avery Johnson outcoached himself 18 years ago in the first round of the 2007 playoffs; the 42-40 Golden State Warriors upset Johnson's 67-15 Dallas Mavericks after the Mavericks changed their starting lineup prior to game one, going small to match up with Golden State's small lineup. The Warriors won game one, and later won the series 4-2. 

This game's ending provided an example of Rick Carlisle's evolution as a coach; he has always been a smart and strategic coach, but in his early years he could be inflexible and he tended to micromanage game situations; young Carlisle would probably have called a timeout after Nembhard's defensive rebound with 6.9 seconds remaining, but veteran Carlisle trusted his team to play out the final seconds, and they rewarded his trust by getting the ball to Haliburton, who coolly delivered the dagger. 

The series is not over, and momentum does not carry over to the next game, but game one winners go on to take the series more than 77% of the time so the Pacers are in command of this series unless the Thunder not only tie the series but also win a game in Indiana.

Labels: Cason Wallace, Indiana Pacers, Isaiah Hartenstein, Jalen Williams, Oklahoma City Thunder, Pascal Siakam, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Tyrese Haliburton

posted by David Friedman @ 4:03 AM

5 comments

Oklahoma City Versus Indiana Preview

NBA Finals

Oklahoma City (68-14) vs. Indiana (50-32)

Season series: Oklahoma City, 2-0

Indiana can win if…Tyrese Haliburton orchestrates an efficient fast-paced attack with high percentage shooting and minimal turnovers. Haliburton has been very consistent in the first two playoff runs of his young career: last year he averaged 18.7 ppg, 8.2 apg, and 4.8 rpg with shooting splits of .488/.379/.850 while leading the Pacers to the Eastern Conference Finals, and so far this year he has averaged 18.8 ppg, a league-leading 9.8 apg, and 5.7 rpg with shooting splits of .466/.333/.804 while leading the Pacers to their first NBA Finals appearance since 2000. He did not make the All-Star team in 2025 after earning two straight selections from 2023-24, but he is the engine that makes the Pacers go. Haliburton conducted the show as the Pacers ran past the New York Knicks in the Eastern Conference Finals after upsetting the East-leading Cleveland Cavaliers in the second round.

Pascal Siakam led the Pacers in scoring (20.1 ppg) during the regular season, and this was the sixth straight season he averaged at least 20 ppg. The three-time All-Star was the Pacers' only All-Star this season, and he is leading the Pacers in playoff scoring (21.1 ppg). Siakam won the 2025 Larry Bird Eastern Conference Finals MVP, and he played a key role for Toronto's 2019 championship team. The Pacers have few set plays for him, but he runs the floor well and he is an efficient three level scorer when the game slows down.

Myles Turner twice led the NBA in blocked shots (2019, 2021), and he ranked in the top 10 in blocked shots in eight of the past nine seasons, including 2024-25 (2.0 bpg, third). He is not a great rebounder (6.5 rpg this season, 6.8 rpg for his career, 4.9 rpg in the 2025 playoffs) but he is an efficient double figure scorer (15.6 ppg on .481 field goal shooting during the regular season, 15.2 ppg on .525 field goal shooting during the playoffs).

Aaron Nesmith leads the Pacers in three point field goals made (43) in the 2025 playoffs, and he ranks first in three point field goal percentage (.500) among the eight Pacers who have each made at least 10 three pointers during the playoffs. He is also a physical, crafty defensive player who ranks third on the Pacers in playoff rebounding (5.6 rpg), second in blocked shots (.8 bpg), and fourth in steals (.9 spg).

Andrew Nembhard leads the Pacers in playoff steals (1.6 spg) while ranking second in assists (5.1 apg), third in three point field goals made (29), and second in three point filed goal percentage (.483) among the Pacers who have each made at least 10 three pointers during the playoffs.

The Pacers have a talented and deep roster, and they have exceeded all reasonable expectations for how far they could advance in the 2025 playoffs.

Oklahoma City will win because…the Thunder do many of the things that the Pacers do on offense, but the Thunder are better at most of those things: the Pacers ranked seventh in the NBA in regular season scoring (117.4 ppg) and third in field goal percentage (.488)--but the Thunder ranked fourth in regular season scoring (120.5 ppg) with just a slightly lower field goal percentage (.482). The Pacers ranked ninth in regular season three point field goal percentage (.368); the Thunder ranked sixth (.374).

The Thunder not only can match the Pacers shot for shot offensively, but the Thunder have a superior defense. The Thunder set the all-time regular season record for point differential (12.9 ppg), and they have a double digit point differential in the playoffs (10.9 ppg) even though competition is tougher in the postseason. They led the NBA in turnovers forced (17.0 tpg) during the regular season, and they are leading the playoffs with 18.0 tpg forced. The Thunder rank second in the playoffs for fewest turnovers committed (11.8 tpg, just behind the much slower paced Orlando Magic, who averaged 11.6 tpg in a five game first round loss). During the regular season, the Thunder led the league in defensive field goal percentage (.436), two point field goal percentage defense (.513), three point field goal percentage defense (.342), and steals (10.3 spg) while ranking third in points allowed (107.6 ppg); during the playoffs, the Thunder rank first in defensive field goal percentage (.426), second in two point field goal percentage defense (.501), fourth in three point field goal percentage defense (.331), first in steals (10.8 spg), and fourth in points allowed (106.3 ppg). 

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander won the 2025 regular season MVP after leading the league in scoring with a career-high 32.7 ppg, and he was even more effective in his two games versus the Pacers this season: 39.0 ppg with shooting splits of .556/.636/.913. He also averaged 8.0 apg and 7.0 rpg in those games while committing just one turnover in 69 minutes. The Pacers defended Jalen Brunson well in the Eastern Conference Finals, and Brunson still averaged 30.7 ppg on .504 field goal shooting. Gilgeous-Alexander is bigger and more athletic than Brunson, so to say that the Pacers have their hands full is a massive understatement.

Most championship teams have an All-Star one-two punch. Jalen Williams, who turned 24 two months ago, earned his first All-Star selection in 2025, averaging 21.6 ppg, 5.3 rpg, and 5.1 apg to set new career highs in all three categories. He has maintained similar production in the playoffs (20.4 ppg, 5.8 rpg, 5.3 apg). Williams is not as consistent or as dominant as Gilgeous-Alexander, but when Williams is scoring efficiently the Thunder are almost impossible to beat.

Lu Dort looks like a linebacker masquerading as an NBA defensive stopper. Despite averaging a modest 10.1 ppg during the regular season (seventh on the team) he ranked third in minutes played per game because he is the quintessential "3 and D" wing. Dort shot a career-high .412 from three point range this season, but he has slumped to .304 during the playoffs.

The Thunder could be bullied in the paint in the 2023-24 season, but that ended after the summer 2024 acquisition of 7-0, 255 pound center Isaiah Hartenstein, who averaged 11.2 ppg and a team-high 10.7 rpg during the regular season and 9.2 ppg plus 7.9 rpg during the playoffs.

Chet Holmgren is slender but he is not afraid to play in the paint, as demonstrated by his 15.0 ppg, 8.0 rpg, and team-high 2.2 bpg during the regular season. In the playoffs, he is averaging 16.4 ppg, 8.6 rpg, and 2.0 bpg. 

Alex Caruso's modest boxscore numbers do not indicate his huge impact on team success. He can provide full court pressure defense against point guards, and he can guard Nikola Jokic in the post (at least for brief stretches). Caruso, Gilgeous-Alexander, Dort, Williams, and Cason Wallace are each averaging at least 1 spg during the playoffs after also accomplishing that feat during the regular season; any dribble or pass in their vicinity is apt to be transformed into a Thunder fast break dunk or three pointer.

Other things to consider: The Pacers are a very good team that is peaking at the right time--but the Thunder are a historically great team led by a player who has a chance to be considered historically great. 

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is 26 years old and already has won a regular season MVP while earning three All-NBA First Team selections. Tracy McGrady, Gary Payton, Dwyane Wade, and Russell Westbrook each received two All-NBA First Team selections in their entire careers, and McGrady, Payton, and Wade never won a regular season MVP. Allen Iverson, Steve Nash, and Isiah Thomas each made the All-NBA First Team three times, with Iverson winning one regular season MVP, Nash winning two regular season MVPs, and Thomas winning one Finals MVP. One more All-NBA First Team selection moves Gilgeous-Alexander into a tie with Stephen Curry, Walt Frazier, and Chris Paul. If Gilgeous-Alexander wins the Finals MVP then he and Curry would be the only players in that cohort of guards who have a regular season MVP, a Finals MVP, and at least three All-NBA First Team selections. The list of guards who made the All-NBA First Team at least five times includes Kobe Bryant (11), Bob Cousy (10), Jerry West (10), Michael Jordan (10), Oscar Robertson (9), Magic Johnson (8), James Harden (6), George Gervin (5), Jason Kidd (5), and Luka Doncic (5).

Young superstars often have to learn how to share the ball and how to empower their less talented teammates, but Gilgeous-Alexander appears to be an excellent leader who enjoys a great rapport with his teammates. Whenever he is interviewed after a nationally televised game, he includes all of his teammates; with some other stars, that might come across as fake, but when Gilgeous-Alexander does it the love and respect seem to be genuine--and that connectivity is reflected in the way that the Thunder play at both ends of the court. 

The Pacers have enjoyed a remarkable playoff run, but the Thunder are clearly the better team. I predict that Oklahoma City will win in five games.

Labels: Indiana Pacers, Jalen Williams, Oklahoma City Thunder, Pascal Siakam, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Tyrese Haliburton

posted by David Friedman @ 12:01 PM

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Thunder Muzzle Wolves to Advance to the NBA Finals for the First Time Since 2012

The Oklahoma City Thunder outscored the Minnesota Timberwolves 26-9 in the first quarter and built a 39 point second half lead en route to a 124-94 win to clinch the Western Conference Finals, 4-1. The Thunder received the Oscar Robertson Trophy for winning the Western Conference Championship after shooting 46-88 (.523) from the field while limiting the Timberwolves to 35-85 (.412) field goal shooting. The Thunder also outrebounded the Timberwolves 46-39. The official fast break numbers were 19-11 in favor of the Thunder, but it seemed like the Thunder had an even more substantial edge in that category. At times, it looked like the Thunder were playing six on five as they had 14 steals and converted 21 turnovers into 18 points; at halftime, the Timberwolves had 14 turnovers and 12 field goals made, a rare team "Harden" (more turnovers than field goals made). 

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander scored a game-high 34 points on 14-25 field goal shooting while passing for a game-high eight assists, grabbing seven rebounds, and committing just two turnovers. He was one of five Thunder players who had plus/minus numbers of at least +21. The Thunder's first quarter domination was largely a product of Gilgeous-Alexander's high level scoring and playmaking, as he scored or assisted on 24 first quarter points: he scored 12 points on 5-7 field goal shooting, and he had three assists to Chet Holmgren (one three pointer, two dunks), one assist to Isaiah Hartenstein (dunk), and one assist to Cason Wallace for a three pointer just before the buzzer. Gilgeous-Alexander averaged 31.4 ppg, 8.2 apg, and 5.2 rpg during the series with shooting splits of .457/.318/.863 to earn the Magic Johnson Western Conference Finals MVP, joining a club that includes Stephen Curry (2022), Nikola Jokic (2023), and Luka Doncic (2024). 

In addition to Gilgeous-Alexander's individual brilliance, the Thunder are distinguished by their unrelenting defensive pressure, the athleticism throughout their roster, and their overall depth. Holmgren had 22 points, seven rebounds, and a game-high tying three blocked shots. Jalen Williams played a solid all-around game (19 points, game-high eight rebounds, five assists). Lu Dort scored 12 points and had his usual tremendous impact defensively, Isaiah Joe led the bench brigade with 11 points, and Alex Caruso was a menace on defense with a game-high four steals plus numerous deflections and general disruptiveness. The offseason additions of Caruso and Isaiah Hartenstein (eight points, five rebounds, two blocked shots in 17 minutes) helped the Thunder improve from being a very good team to being a dominant team.

The Timberwolves looked overwhelmed and frustrated. Anthony Edwards insists that he does not want to be the face of the NBA, and perhaps he should not be considered for that subjective title after scoring just 19 points on 7-18 field goal shooting with a game-worst -29 plus/minus number. He averaged 23.0 ppg, 7.4 rpg, and 4.6 apg during the series with shooting splits of .471/.282/.688. Edwards had two 30 point games during this series, and the Timberwolves went 1-1 in those contests, but he also had three games with less than 20 points, all three of which the Timberwolves lost. 

In the postgame press conference after game five, Edwards scoffed at the notion that being eliminated from the Western Conference Finals in five games for the second year in a row should hurt: "I don't know why people would think it would hurt. It's exciting for me. I'm 23. I get to do it a whole bunch of times. I'm hurt more so for [teammate] Mike [Conley]. I came up short for Mike. We tried last year, we couldn't get it. We tried again this year. We'll try again next year. But hurt is a terrible word to use. I'm good." Edwards should be careful about asserting that he will reach the Western Conference Finals "a whole bunch of times"; nothing is promised, and a lot can change for players and teams in a short period of time. Perhaps a mental health professional would say that Edwards has a mature response to losing, but I would argue that Edwards' attitude is not what one would expect from a champion or a potential champion. Michael Jordan and Kobe Bryant agonized after every season when they failed to win a title; again, maybe that is not the healthiest approach or the approach that a "normal" person might have, but perhaps champions are not "normal." There is a difference between winners and champions. Just making it to the NBA means that you are a winner--but very few NBA players become champions, and even fewer become the best player on a championship team. To become a champion, you have to feel at least a little hurt when you fall short. Maybe Edwards feels hurt but is too prideful to admit that publicly. By no means am I suggesting that he is not capable of leading a team to a title; he is too talented to write off at this early stage of his career. However, there are reasons to wonder about him based on how he plays and some of the things that he says. Edwards has had some great playoff performances, but he has also been outplayed by the other team's star in back to back Western Conference Finals, and those stars are young--Luka Doncic and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander--so Edwards will have to figure out how to beat his peers to win a championship; he is not in position to just inherit the top spot from older stars such as LeBron James, Kevin Durant, and Stephen Curry.

Julius Randle had 24 points on 8-14 field goal shooting plus five rebounds and three assists. Naz Reid added 11 points on 5-6 field goal shooting and a game-high tying three blocked shots in 24 minutes off of the bench. Terrence Shannon Jr. scored 11 points in 16 minutes off of the bench, and after the game Coach Chris Finch conceded that next season he may lengthen the rotation to give his young bench players more opportunities to contribute. 

The Timberwolves are a very good team, but not quite good enough to win a championship. It is interesting to note that their roster was built by Tim Connelly to beat the Denver Nuggets, whose roster Connelly built before coming to Minnesota. The Timberwolves defeated the Nuggets in the 2024 NBA playoffs, but this year the Timberwolves faced a Thunder team that eliminated the Nuggets, so it appears that Connelly may have to tweak his roster to deal with the Thunder's speed and defensive pressure, in contrast to the size and physicality that he assembled to attack Denver's big frontcourt.

The Thunder have reached the NBA Finals for the first time since 2012, when their young Kevin Durant-Russell Westbrook-James Harden trio lost 4-1 to the Miami Heat's "Big Three" of LeBron James, Dwyane Wade, and Chris Bosh. The Thunder look like a team that could be a contender for several years, but the 2012 Thunder represent a cautionary tale (and a tale that should be heeded by Edwards as well): that group never reached the NBA Finals again, with Harden fleeing for Houston after the 2012 NBA Finals run and then Durant joining Golden State's powerhouse team in 2016.

Labels: Alex Caruso, Anthony Edwards, Jalen Williams, Julius Randle, Minnesota Timberwolves, Oklahoma City Thunder, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

posted by David Friedman @ 11:49 AM

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Thunder's Stars Outshine Timberwolves' Stars in Tightly Contested Game Four

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander scored a playoff career-high 40 points and Jalen William added a playoff career-high 34 points as the Oklahoma City Thunder outlasted the Minnesota Timberwolves 128-126 to take a 3-1 lead in the Western Conference Finals. Sports in general are very strategic, and basketball in particular is a game in which the smart take from the strong, but sometimes the game is simple: a team whose stars dominate has a great chance to win. Chet Holmgren, the Thunder's third option, scored as many points (21) as Minnesota's Anthony Edwards (16) and Julius Randle (five) combined.

Gilgeous-Alexander also had a game-high 10 assists, and a game-high tying nine rebounds. He did not shoot very efficiently (13-30, .433) and he had a game-high tying five turnovers, but--as we saw with Michael Jordan and Kobe Bryant--a team's best player has the responsibility to take a lot of shots because he will not only score but he will also attract defensive attention (only called "gravity" when Stephen Curry does it) that opens up opportunities for his teammates. One of the most impressive obscure statistics in pro basketball history is that Michael Jordan scored at least 20 points in 35 consecutive NBA Finals games. Jordan regularly faced double teams and triple teams, and he learned to pass the ball when necessary--but he always understood his responsibility to put up big scoring totals in every game, particularly in playoff games and NBA Finals games. Julius Erving scored at least 20 points in 26 straight Finals games (his last seven in the ABA and his first 19 in the NBA), and he scored at least 20 points in 31 of his 33 Finals games overall (10/11 in the ABA, 21/22 in the NBA). Jerry West ranks third with 25 straight NBA Finals games with at least 20 points.

Nickeil Alexander-Walker led the Timberwolves with 23 points, Jaden McDaniels scored 22 points, Donte DiVincenzo added 21 points, and Rudy Gobert contributed 13 points plus a game-high tying nine rebounds, but the problem is not just that Edwards only had 16 points in a de facto elimination game; the problem is that Edwards shot 5-13 from the field--and the low number of field goal attempts is at least as concerning as the poor field goal percentage, for the reason mentioned above: a team's best player must force the action at times. It sounds great to talk about "making the right play," but often the right play is attacking the opposing defense until it breaks; passively accepting a double team and then making a pass that does not threaten the defense is not "the right play," nor is it a winning play. Edwards and Randle each committed five turnovers, and Randle shot just 1-7 from the field; those numbers do not point to making the right play: they point to being tentative, indecisive, and careless with the ball. 

After Minnesota won game three 143-101 a lot was said about a momentum shift in this series. How much momentum carried over into game four? None. Momentum is something that talking heads mention in lieu of analyzing basketball strategy and matchups. In game three, Minnesota was the more aggressive team at both ends of the court, while Oklahoma City looked like a team that had relaxed after taking a 2-0 series lead. In contrast, the Thunder led 37-30 at the end of the first quarter of game four, scoring almost as many points in the first 12 minutes as they scored in the first 24 minutes of game three (41)--and the stars led the way, with Gilgeous-Alexander and Williams scoring 13 first quarter points each. The Timberwolves briefly led in the first quarter, but never by more than two points, and they did not lead at all in the final three quarters; the game remained close throughout--the Thunder's largest lead was only 11 points--but the outcome was never in serious doubt, because a team whose stars play passively throughout the game is not often rewarded with a win by the basketball gods.

Opposing fans call Gilgeous-Alexander a "foul merchant," which is an odd phrase. Is he being accused of selling fouls or buying fouls? Gilgeous-Alexander is not James Harden flopping and flailing while looking for bailout calls. Gilgeous-Alexander is aggressive, which all great offensive players are--and aggressive players draw fouls, which not only leads to free throws but also puts the opposing team in foul trouble. Edwards and Randle would be well-advised to match that level of aggressiveness to have any chance of extending this series beyond game five in Oklahoma City.

Labels: Anthony Edwards, Jalen Williams, Julius Randle, Minnesota Timberwolves, Oklahoma City Thunder, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

posted by David Friedman @ 1:02 AM

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Timberwolves Roll Over Thunder, 143-101

The Oklahoma City Thunder can cancel the coronation and the parade, at least for now--after convincingly taking a 2-0 Western Conference Finals lead versus the Minnesota Timberwolves, the Thunder suffered a historic loss in game three as the Timberwolves led by as much as 45 points before prevailing, 143-101. The Timberwolves led 72-41 at halftime, setting a franchise playoff record for most points in a half and tying the third largest halftime lead in a Conference Finals game since 1971. They also set the franchise record for most points in a playoff game, and broke the NBA record for largest victory margin in any game--regular season or playoffs--versus a team that won 65 or more games that season. This was the worst playoff loss in Thunder history, and the second biggest playoff win in Timberwolves history.

The Thunder opened the game with a 4-0 run before the Timberwolves hit them with an avalanche, storming to a 34-14 lead by the end of the first quarter. The 68-33 score late in the second quarter looked like a typographical error. The Thunder opened the third quarter with an 11-2 run, but the Timberwolves called a timeout and then answered with a 23-4 burst to put the game away. One of the ways that the Thunder dominate teams is by forcing more turnovers than they commit, and then transforming many of those turnovers into fast break points, but in this game the Timberwolves committed just 10 turnovers leading to 15 points while forcing 14 turnovers resulting in 16 points. 

Anthony Edwards scored a game-high 30 points in just under 30 minutes while also leading both teams in rebounding (nine) and assists (six). Julius Randle bounced back from an awful game two, scoring 24 points on 9-15 field goal shooting. Terrence Shannon Jr. scored 15 points off of the bench in just 13 minutes; it is safe to assume that he did not receive much attention in the Thunder's scouting report, but he had nine of his points in the second quarter to help the Timberwolves blow the game open.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, the NBA's regular season MVP and scoring champion, led the Thunder with just 14 points and a game-high tying six assists. Ajay Mitchell scored all 14 of his points in fourth quarter garbage time minutes. Jalen Williams had 13 points.

ESPN's Mike Breen correctly noted that the team that eventually wins the NBA championship sometimes has a blowout loss during their title run, and he said that in the moment that the blowout loss happens it is "shocking." One example that I remember from my childhood is the dominant 1982 L.A. Lakers who went 12-2 in the playoffs, including a 9-0 start after winning their final three regular season games. The Lakers did not lose a game from April 13-May 30 before Julius Erving's Philadelphia 76ers beat them 110-94 in game two of the NBA Finals; after the Lakers defeated the 76ers by 21 and 10 in the next two games they got blasted 135-102 before capturing the title with a 114-104 game six win as Magic Johnson logged a 13-13-13 triple double to win his second NBA Finals MVP in the first three seasons of his career. Losing a blowout does not guarantee winning a championship, of course; the point is that a blowout loss is not necessarily a sign that a team cannot or will not win a championship.

This game is a great reminder of how difficult it is for even a dominant team to sweep a best of seven playoff series, and it brought to mind the question of how often some of the greatest players of all-time won in sweeps (and how often they were swept). I looked up the playoff records of four members of my basketball Pantheon, choosing a dominant player who started his career in the 1970s (Julius Erving), the 1980s (Michael Jordan), the 1990s (Kobe Bryant), and the 2000s (LeBron James).

Julius Erving posted a 24-13 career playoff series record while winning three championships. He logged six sweeps in best of seven series (including the 1983 NBA Finals, the first NBA Finals sweep since 1975), and his teams were never swept (he had four 2-0 sweeps and was never swept 2-0). Michael Jordan had a 30-7 career playoff series record while winning six championships. He had three sweeps in best of seven series and was never swept in a best of seven series (he had six 3-0 sweeps and lost 3-0 twice). Kobe Bryant had a 33-10 career playoff series record while winning five championships. Bryant had five sweeps in best of seven series and he was swept three times in best of seven series (he also had two 3-0 sweeps and was never swept 3-0). LeBron James has a 41-14 career playoff series record while winning four championships. James has 12 sweeps in best of seven series and he was swept three times in best of seven series, including twice in the NBA Finals.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is just a babe in the NBA playoff woods. He has a 3-3 career playoff series record, including two sweeps in best of seven series; he has never been swept, and his teams have won at least two games in all seven of his playoff series (including the 2025 Western Conference Finals, with his Thunder currently leading 2-1). It will be interesting to watch those numbers over the next decade or so. Anthony Edwards has a 3-4 career playoff series record with one sweep and no times being swept. We will find out soon enough if Edwards' Timberwolves will make this a competitive series by winning game four, or if they will be content to avoid being swept.

Labels: Anthony Edwards, Jalen Williams, Julius Randle, Minnesota Timberwolves, Oklahoma City Thunder, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

posted by David Friedman @ 1:02 AM

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Thunder Rout Timberwolves After Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Receives MVP Trophy

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander received his 2025 NBA regular season MVP trophy prior to game two of the Western Conference Finals, and then he reminded everyone why he deserved the award: he scored a game-high/playoff career-high tying 38 points on 12-21 field goal shooting while leading the Oklahoma City Thunder to a 118-103 win over the Minnesota Timberwolves to take a 2-0 series lead. ESPN's Tim Legler said that not all 2-0 leads are created equal, adding that this one feels "heavier" than others--and that is an apt way of describing how outmatched the Timberwolves appear to be. Maybe the Timberwolves will find a way to win game three at home, but it is an understatement to say that beating the Thunder is a daunting task.

Gilgeous-Alexander not only scored prolifically and efficiently, but he also had a game-high eight assists while committing just one turnover as the Thunder again dominated the possession game: the Thunder scored 22 points off of 14 Timberwolves turnovers while giving up just 10 points off of their eight turnovers. Jalen Williams had 26 points, a game-high 10 rebounds, and five assists. Chet Holmgren added 22 points, many of them on strong cuts to the hoop. 

Anthony Edwards led Minnesota in scoring (32 points), rebounding (nine), and assists (six), but he did not have enough help. Jaden McDaniels scored 22 points and Nickeil Alexander-Walker added 17 points off of the bench, but Julius Randle had such a miserable game (six points on 2-11 field goal shooting) that he was benched for the entire fourth quarter.

The Thunder held the Timberwolves to 36-87 (.414) field goal shooting, including 11-39 (.282) from beyond the arc. The Thunder have a host of elite defensive players, led by Lu Dort-- who just earned his first All-Defensive Team selection--and Jalen Williams, a first-time All-Star in 2025 who also just earned his first All-Defensive Team selection. Alex Caruso made the All-Defensive Team each of the previous two seasons but did not qualify for selection this season because he only played in 54 regular season games.

This was not quite a wire to wire win--Minnesota briefly held two point and one point leads during the first half--but the Thunder led for most of this game, including the entire second half. The Timberwolves trailed 58-50 at halftime, a deficit that looked manageable, and they cut the margin to four a couple times before the Thunder closed the third quarter with a 23-7 run to lead 93-71 heading into the final stanza. The Thunder led by double digits for the entire fourth quarter.

Through the first two games of this series, the Thunder's athleticism and relentless defensive pressure have overwhelmed the Timberwolves, and the Timberwolves have not effectively used the size and physicality that helped them win playoff series versus the L.A. Lakers and Golden State Warriors. Julius Randle excelled in game one but disappeared in game two, while Anthony Edwards had a subpar game one by his lofty standards before playing well in game two. The young Thunder sometimes seem to be jittery at the start of games, but they generally calm down quickly before asserting their dominance in the third quarter. The Timberwolves will need to get outstanding performances from both Edwards and Randle plus more contributions from the supporting cast to win game three.

Labels: Anthony Edwards, Jalen Williams, Julius Randle, Minnesota Timberwolves, Oklahoma City Thunder, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

posted by David Friedman @ 11:19 AM

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